030
FXUS62 KRAH 061740
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED AT ALL AUTOMATED STATIONS, WITH LOW CLOUDS ALSO CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY, AND ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
* ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE(HIGHEST HREF PROBS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT) THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN IT'S WAKE WILL PROMOTE SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z. ABUNDANT
AFTERNOON SUN WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM HIGHS, WITH MOST PLACES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MCVS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,
WILL APPROACH THE NC MTNS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RENEWED LIFT/FORCING FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-02Z.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, INCLUDING MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-
30KTS AND ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT IS GREATEST BETWEEN 4 TO 8 PM.
AS THE STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT BETWEEN
00 TO 06Z SATURDAY, NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT BY THIS POINT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HIGH-
RES MODELS APPEAR TO DEPICT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN KY/TN ON SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. AMID RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S
TO LOWER-90S, SBCAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
FURTHERMORE, BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS. SO SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE REGION IN A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST, AND DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, ML GUIDANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR TOO IMPRESSED, AND THE CAMS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION, WITH THE ARW AND FV3 MUCH LESS
ROBUST COMPARED TO THE HRRR, NSSL, AND ESPECIALLY NAM NEST. SO STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IS THE ENTIRE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT,
BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID. SATURDAY'S HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
THE UPPER-90S IN THE FAR SE, WITH LOWER-TO-MID-90S ELSEWHERE. AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MILD, IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMO EACH DAY, MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NE FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS TO OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS HIGHER ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS,
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND EVEN GREATER INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG
OF CAPE). SO POPS ARE ABOUT 60-70% EVERYWHERE. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE, AND GIVEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS. THUS THE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE NW
WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5), AS THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
THERE ON HOW CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM MORNING CONVECTION AFFECTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT ON MONDAY, AND WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE PLUS WEAKER FLOW ALOFT,
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE.
POPS ARE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE, HIGHEST SE.
HOWEVER, THIS REPRIEVE LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHES A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT EITHER REACHES US ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR
STALLS JUST TO OUR N/NW. SO POPS ARE BACK IN THE LIKELY RANGE ON
TUESDAY, AND MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND
CONTINUED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NE FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO SE CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.
WITH ANY COLD FRONTS FIZZLING OUT OR STALLING JUST N/NW OF OUR
REGION, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
GIVEN THE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-
80S TO LOWER-90S. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY MID-TO-UPPER-80S. LOWS
WILL BE KEPT MILD DUE TO EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER,
GENERALLY MID-60S TO LOWER-70S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY VFR TAFS AT RDU/RWI/FAY,
WHILE THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE INT/GSO TAFS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. AS OF 17Z, A LONE
THUNDERSTORM HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND WAS HEADING TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE WV, KY, VA, AND TN MOUNTAINS, AND IT IS THIS CONVECTION THAT
WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT INT/GSO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST HRRR,
BUT FEEL THAT IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD APPROACH INT/GSO BY 18Z SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A BIT OF A LULL ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH RAIN AND WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR EACH DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ANY
TERMINAL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN/CBL
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...GREEN
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