568
FXUS62 KRAH 061830
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION BEING THE US-1 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWEST OF RALEIGH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS VERY ISOLATED IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA RIGHT NOW, BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
AS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MOVES EAST.
OVERALL, IT SEEMS AS IF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOCALLY, AND THE NEW FORECAST
ONLY HAS A SMALL PORTION OF THE TRIAD WITH CHANCE POPS, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE TRIANGLE. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
LINE UP FAIRLY WELL IN COVERAGE WITH THE LATEST VERSION OF THE TIME-
LAGGED HRRR, WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TRIAD BETWEEN 8PM AND 12AM. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS OF THE 12:30PM SPC DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK LINES UP PRETTY
WELL WITH WHERE THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. WITH DECREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS, THIS ESSENTIALLY DECREASES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER; HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO WORK WITH, DESPITE
MINIMAL SHEAR. IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT BY THIS POINT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HIGH-
RES MODELS APPEAR TO DEPICT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN KY/TN ON SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. AMID RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S
TO LOWER-90S, SBCAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
FURTHERMORE, BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS. SO SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE REGION IN A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST, AND DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, ML GUIDANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR TOO IMPRESSED, AND THE CAMS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION, WITH THE ARW AND FV3 MUCH LESS
ROBUST COMPARED TO THE HRRR, NSSL, AND ESPECIALLY NAM NEST. SO STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IS THE ENTIRE DAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT,
BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID. SATURDAY'S HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
THE UPPER-90S IN THE FAR SE, WITH LOWER-TO-MID-90S ELSEWHERE. AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MILD, IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN OVER THE EASTERN US BY FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
THE US1 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THAT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE WORKWEEK
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
STALLING ALONG THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE (MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
FEEL MUGGY ALL WEEK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY VFR TAFS AT RDU/RWI/FAY,
WHILE THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE INT/GSO TAFS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. AS OF 17Z, A LONE
THUNDERSTORM HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND WAS HEADING TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE WV, KY, VA, AND TN MOUNTAINS, AND IT IS THIS CONVECTION THAT
WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT INT/GSO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST HRRR,
BUT FEEL THAT IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD APPROACH INT/GSO BY 18Z SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A BIT OF A LULL ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH RAIN AND WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR EACH DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ANY
TERMINAL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...GREEN
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