297
FXUS62 KRAH 070809
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
409 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL
OVER NC THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* LEVEL 2/SLIGHT-RISK OF SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR---HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S THIS AFTERNOON
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OR REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER TX/OK, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:
THE COLD-POOL/OUTFLOW DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY
DISSIPATED, RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP AND CONVECTION
UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP OWING TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABLIZATION AND THE ADVANCING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE IMPROVED FROM
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND ML CAPE VALUES
PEAKING 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES, WITH D-CAPE VALUES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE AREA,
WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT/TRIANGLE UP INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/ROANOKE RAPIDS
BETWEEN 3 TO 8 PM, PER NEURAL NETWORK/MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS ARRIVE
INTO THE REGION. WHILE EARLIER STORMS MAY MODULATE OR STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY LINGER TO SUPPORT A
SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM
REMAIN ROBUST. MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HEAT ALERT:
TODAY WILL MARK THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST BOUT OF
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
TODAY RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHEN COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES-
FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND SOUTHERN AREAS. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS---STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, AND SEEK SHADE WHENEVER POSSIBLE
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS 67-
72.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z SUN, THEN PIVOT ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUN AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SUN
NIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED, ~75 KT, SWLY UPR-
LEVEL JET, ATOP CONTINUED 30-40 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW, WILL
OVERSPREAD CNTL NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK, OUTFLOW-
REINFORCED FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD INTO VA AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
LOW, POSSIBLY AMPLIFIED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION/ LATENT HEATING,
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. LIKE SAT, A
TRAILING, OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY SETTLE ACROSS
CNTL NC LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, BOTH FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND RELATED
TO THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET, MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SAT
AND CONSEQUENTLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN HOT AND HUMID, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER WRN NC AND GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CNTL NC, SUPPORTED ON THE
LARGER-SCALE BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/JET. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND ALSO CLUSTERS
OR A BROKEN LINE, ALL CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT, A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING, WITH UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND MUGGY LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NE BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN OVER THE EASTERN US BY FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
THE US1 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THAT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE WORKWEEK
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. I WOULD EXPECT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
STALLING ALONG THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FOR A FEW DAYS. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE (MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
FEEL MUGGY ALL WEEK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
24 TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUNDAY: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABLIZATION AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH TIMING AS FOLLOWS:
KINT AND KGSO: 17 TO 20Z; KRDU: 19 TO 22Z; KRWI: 20 TO 24Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS SECOND
ROUND OF IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING EASTERN TERMINALS. AFTER A RELATIVE
LULL ON MONDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION FROM PRIOR RAINFALL MAY RESULT
IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ANY TERMINAL ON SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL/GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page