908
FXUS62 KRAH 070832
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* LEVEL 2/SLIGHT-RISK OF SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR---HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S THIS AFTERNOON
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OR REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER TX/OK, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:
THE COLD-POOL/OUTFLOW DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY
DISSIPATED, RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP AND CONVECTION
UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP OWING TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABLIZATION AND THE ADVANCING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE IMPROVED FROM
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND ML CAPE VALUES
PEAKING 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES, WITH D-CAPE VALUES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE AREA,
WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT/TRIANGLE UP INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/ROANOKE RAPIDS
BETWEEN 3 TO 8 PM, PER NEURAL NETWORK/MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS ARRIVE
INTO THE REGION. WHILE EARLIER STORMS MAY MODULATE OR STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY LINGER TO SUPPORT A
SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM
REMAIN ROBUST. MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HEAT ALERT:
TODAY WILL MARK THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST BOUT OF
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
TODAY RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHEN COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES-
FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND SOUTHERN AREAS. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS---STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, AND SEEK SHADE WHENEVER POSSIBLE
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS 67-
72.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC,
WHILE A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS MOVE NE/E, ONE FROM IN/OH INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING, THE CAMS INDICATE IT WILL BE IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED
STATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. A SEPARATE MCV LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
GA/SC IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN OUR SE ZONES. THERE COULD BE
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM LOWS/DISTURBANCES AND SW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES. HOWEVER, THE 00Z HREF STILL DEPICTS
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90 AND
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, PLUS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 M AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE MODEST BROAD FORCING AND DIFFERING GUIDANCE (BOTH GLOBAL
AND HIGH-RES), SO DID LOWER POPS FROM NBM TO THE HIGH CHANCE - LOW
LIKELY RANGE. AREAS EAST OF US-1 APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CAMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE (25-35 KTS), BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THUS THE
SPC HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE NW PIEDMONT WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH
OVER VA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO
AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES THE REGION. STILL, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD (MID-60S TO 70).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT ON MONDAY, AND
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING PLUS WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH BUOYANCY AND
RESULTING CONVECTION THERE WILL BE, WITH THE GFS/ECMWF COMPLETELY
DRY AND THE NAM/CMC WETTER. FOR NOW RETAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS, HIGHEST SE WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN THE SW PIEDMONT
WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF AN MCV TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE DECREASE IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT
COMPARED TO SUNDAY, GENERALLY UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-90S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PARENT TROUGH FARTHER EAST AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE AS THE MCV MOVES NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS, AND LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MORE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN 25-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, UPPER FORCING APPEARS MODEST AS WE WILL
ACTUALLY BE EXPERIENCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BY THIS POINT. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW, AND ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER,
SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE EAST. FORECAST HIGHS GO BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY TO MID-TO-UPPER-80S, WITH FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID-60S TO 70.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FARTHER NE IN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, GETTING REPLACED BY RIDGING THAT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US. SO SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, BUT STILL HAVE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
MAY LINGER OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING STARTS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-80S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS S/SW FLOW INCREASES FROM A BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING FARTHER
WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
24 TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUNDAY: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABLIZATION AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH TIMING AS FOLLOWS:
KINT AND KGSO: 17 TO 20Z; KRDU: 19 TO 22Z; KRWI: 20 TO 24Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS SECOND
ROUND OF IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING EASTERN TERMINALS. AFTER A RELATIVE
LULL ON MONDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION FROM PRIOR RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ANY TERMINAL ON SUBSEQUENT
MORNINGS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...CBL/GREEN
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