335
FXUS62 KRAH 071353
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
953 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 953 AM SATURDAY...
* LEVEL 2/SLIGHT-RISK OF SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR---HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S THIS AFTERNOON
MID MORNING IR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DECAYING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER, MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT (TRACE AMOUNTS OBSERVED AT INT/GSO) AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS FAR SW VA, WHILE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS REVEAL THE
PRESENCE OF A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STORM THREAT (PART 1 - THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING): MUCH OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY, INCLUDING MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG, 30-40KTS OF DEEP SHEAR, A TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD PW'S AROUND
150% OF NORMAL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK REMAINS HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL
MAINTAIN AREAS NORTH OF NC ROUTE 27 AS A ROUGH CUT OFF FOR WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED. THIS GENERAL AREA IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY
ELEVATED HREF UPDRAFT STRENGTH PROBABILITIES AND HRRR NEURAL NETWORK
TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. WHILE SEVERE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE SOUTH, PERHAPS THE GUIDANCE IS LESS ENTHUSED IN THESE
AREAS GIVEN THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. I WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT
CERTAINLY KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. DAMAGING 50KT
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION.
STORM THREAT (PART 2 - OVERNIGHT): MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, STALLING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE PROCESS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF
UNCAPPED MLCAPE ON TAP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN TN) SHOULD
ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND RIDE THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IT'S ENTIRELY CONCEIVABLE THAT
WE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BORDER ON SEVERE LIMITS. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE IS LOW, AS NUMEROUS CAMS KEEP THIS CONVECTION OUT OF OUR
AREA, WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT REMAINING ELEVATED OR DISSIPATING
ENTIRELY. WILL HAVE A DETAILED LOOK AT SOME 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
HEAT: MEANWHILE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES OF THE YEAR (SO FAR) THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW TO MID
90S FOR HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO CLINTON AND POINTS SOUTH. ELSEWHERE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD, FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC,
WHILE A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS MOVE NE/E, ONE FROM IN/OH INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, AND WHILE DIURNAL TIMING ISN'T
FAVORABLE, CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE THREAT WITH IT ON SUNDAY MORNING
IF SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE NAM NEST VERIFY. A SEPARATE MCV LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS GA/SC IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN OUR SE
ZONES. THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SW
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES. HOWEVER, THE 00Z HREF
STILL DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ON THE ORDER OF
1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-
80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, PLUS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 M AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEST BROAD FORCING AND
DIFFERING GUIDANCE (BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES), SO DID LOWER POPS
FROM NBM TO THE HIGH CHANCE - LOW LIKELY RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE (25-35 KTS), BUT IT COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THUS THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE NW
PIEDMONT WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH OVER VA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHES THE REGION. STILL, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
(MID-60S TO 70).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT ON MONDAY, AND
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES FROM SHORTWAVE RIDGING PLUS WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH BUOYANCY AND
RESULTING CONVECTION THERE WILL BE, WITH THE GFS/ECMWF COMPLETELY
DRY AND THE NAM/CMC WETTER. FOR NOW RETAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS, HIGHEST SE WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN THE SW PIEDMONT
WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF AN MCV TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE DECREASE IN
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT
COMPARED TO SUNDAY, GENERALLY UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-90S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PARENT TROUGH FARTHER EAST AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE AS THE MCV MOVES NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS, AND LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MORE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN 25-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, UPPER FORCING APPEARS MODEST AS WE WILL
ACTUALLY BE EXPERIENCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BY THIS POINT. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW, AND ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER,
SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE EAST. FORECAST HIGHS GO BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY TO MID-TO-UPPER-80S, WITH FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID-60S TO 70.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FARTHER NE IN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, GETTING REPLACED BY RIDGING THAT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US. SO SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, BUT STILL HAVE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
MAY LINGER OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING STARTS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-80S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS S/SW FLOW INCREASES FROM A BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING FARTHER
WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 658 AM SATURDAY...
24 TAF PERIOD: AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD
TERMINALS BETWEEN 12 TO 15Z, WITH LITTLE TO NO RESTRICTIONS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABLIZATION AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH TIMING AS FOLLOWS:
KINT AND KGSO: 17 TO 20Z; KRDU: 19 TO 23Z; KRWI: 22 TO 02Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS SECOND
ROUND OF IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS INDICATE
SOME IFR TO MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING EASTERN TERMINALS. AFTER A
RELATIVE LULL ON MONDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION FROM PRIOR
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ANY TERMINAL
ON SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...CBL/GREEN
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