242
FXUS62 KRAH 071829
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 953 AM SATURDAY...
* LEVEL 2/SLIGHT-RISK OF SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR---HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S THIS AFTERNOON
MID MORNING IR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DECAYING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER, MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT (TRACE AMOUNTS OBSERVED AT INT/GSO) AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS FAR SW VA, WHILE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS REVEAL THE
PRESENCE OF A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STORM THREAT (PART 1 - THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING): MUCH OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY, INCLUDING MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG, 30-40KTS OF DEEP SHEAR, A TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD PW'S AROUND
150% OF NORMAL. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK REMAINS HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL
MAINTAIN AREAS NORTH OF NC ROUTE 27 AS A ROUGH CUT OFF FOR WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED. THIS GENERAL AREA IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY
ELEVATED HREF UPDRAFT STRENGTH PROBABILITIES AND HRRR NEURAL NETWORK
TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. WHILE SEVERE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE SOUTH, PERHAPS THE GUIDANCE IS LESS ENTHUSED IN THESE
AREAS GIVEN THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. I WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT
CERTAINLY KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. DAMAGING 50KT
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION.
STORM THREAT (PART 2 - OVERNIGHT): MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, STALLING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE PROCESS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF
UNCAPPED MLCAPE ON TAP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN TN) SHOULD
ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND RIDE THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IT'S ENTIRELY CONCEIVABLE THAT
WE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BORDER ON SEVERE LIMITS. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE IS LOW, AS NUMEROUS CAMS KEEP THIS CONVECTION OUT OF OUR
AREA, WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT REMAINING ELEVATED OR DISSIPATING
ENTIRELY. WILL HAVE A DETAILED LOOK AT SOME 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
HEAT: MEANWHILE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES OF THE YEAR (SO FAR) THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW TO MID
90S FOR HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO CLINTON AND POINTS SOUTH. ELSEWHERE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD, FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC,
WHILE A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS MOVE NE/E, ONE FROM IN/OH INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, AND WHILE DIURNAL TIMING ISN'T
FAVORABLE, CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE THREAT WITH IT ON SUNDAY MORNING
IF SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE NAM NEST VERIFY. A SEPARATE MCV LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS GA/SC IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN OUR SE
ZONES. THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SW
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES. HOWEVER, THE 00Z HREF
STILL DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ON THE ORDER OF
1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-
80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, PLUS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 M AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEST BROAD FORCING AND
DIFFERING GUIDANCE (BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES), SO DID LOWER POPS
FROM NBM TO THE HIGH CHANCE - LOW LIKELY RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE (25-35 KTS), BUT IT COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THUS THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE NW
PIEDMONT WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH OVER VA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHES THE REGION. STILL, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
(MID-60S TO 70).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A LULL WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THE COVERAGE THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER MONDAY
NIGHT THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN
GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS TODAY ARE BACKING OFF
PRECIPITATION ALONG CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE NC COASTLINE. LIKELY POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY, PRIMARILY BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CURVE,
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED - LOCATIONS IN THE TRIAD
AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER ARE LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ON TUESDAY, WITH
VALUES IN THE 80S. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S. SOME MID 90S COULD EVEN CREEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 228 PM SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORM GENERALLY FROM 20Z TO 00Z SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/SPATIAL EXTENT IS STILL LOW.
MAINTAINED AT LEAST A MENTION OF RAIN AND GUST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
LASTLY, SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG/REDUCED VSBYS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BY ~09Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
BY ~13 TO 15Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PROMOTING
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. PERIODS OF MORNING STRATUS
AND/OR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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