586
FXUS62 KRAH 080240
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1035 PM SATURDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE
TRIANGLE WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF DECAYING STRATIFORM RAIN OVER
WESTERN NC INTO CENTRAL SC, WHICH STEMS FROM A LONG DURATION
WIDESPREAD BOWING SEGMENT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR PRESENTATION SUGGEST A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND WITH OBSERVED
WIND GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 35 KTS, COMPARED TO THE 45 TO 55 KTS
MEASURED EARLIER.
THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED MCV'S WITHIN THE DECAYING LINE THAT ARE
MODELED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH -100 TO -150 CIN IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A PLUME OF 1500-2000 MUCAPE PRESENT
OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING FROM THE MCV'S
RIPPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. GREATEST COVERAGE AND WHERE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK AND WITHIN THE
CORE OF THE MCV. ELEVATED NATURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO THE DEEPEST CORES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN MUCH A FLOODING CONCERN OVERNIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER HEAVILY URBAN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 242 PM SATURDAY...
* LEVEL 2/SLIGHT-RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WOULD APPEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY, FEATURING 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
PLENTY OF MOISTURE, BUT PERHAPS A BIT MORE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR.
(0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 15KTS VS 5-10KTS TODAY). SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AREA-WIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY LOW, WITH DAMAGING WINDS ONCE AGAIN
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER WITH A BIT MORE SHEAR IN
PLACE, ALONG WITH LIKELY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LOW END 2% TORNADO
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT INCLUDE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION, WHICH COULD SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AND TRIM BACK
HOW MUCH MLCAPE IS REALIZED. STILL, IT SEEMS LIKE THERE ARE ENOUGH
FACTORS IN FAVOR OF CONVECTION THAT I WILL KEEP 50-60 POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
ACROSS NC TOMORROW SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH DRY
WEATHER AFTER 06Z ONWARD.
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A LULL WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THE COVERAGE THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER MONDAY
NIGHT THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN
GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS TODAY ARE BACKING OFF
PRECIPITATION ALONG CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE NC COASTLINE. LIKELY POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY, PRIMARILY BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CURVE,
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED - LOCATIONS IN THE TRIAD
AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER ARE LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ON TUESDAY, WITH
VALUES IN THE 80S. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S. SOME MID 90S COULD EVEN CREEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 755 PM SATURDAY...
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/SPATIAL EXTENT IS STILL LOW.
MAINTAINED AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUST POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
LASTLY, SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG/REDUCED VSBYS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS BY ~09Z BEFORE LIFTING
TO VFR BY ~13 TO 15Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PROMOTING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. PERIODS OF MORNING
STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT
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