048
FXUS62 KRAH 080703
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC
THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 09-12Z.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THIS MORNING, CROSSING THE TN VALLEY TODAY, AND REACHING
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL SEND
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MCVS INTO THE SE US BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, A
WEAKER, GLANCING INFLUENCE MAY STILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 14 TO 21Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE
BETWEEN 21 TO 06Z.
TODAY'S ENVIRONMENTAL IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH STRONG SFC
HEATING YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 90S SOUTH, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH HAIL AS A SECONDARY, ISOLATED
CONCERN.
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A LULL WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THE COVERAGE THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER MONDAY
NIGHT THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN
GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS TODAY ARE BACKING OFF
PRECIPITATION ALONG CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, KEEPING PRECIP CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE NC COASTLINE. LIKELY POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY, PRIMARILY BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CURVE,
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED - LOCATIONS IN THE TRIAD
AND ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER ARE LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ON TUESDAY, WITH
VALUES IN THE 80S. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S. SOME MID 90S COULD EVEN CREEP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /060Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE DAILY PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PERIODS OF MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS STRETCH.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL
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