870
FXUS62 KRAH 290437
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 935 PM SATURDAY...
RAIN-COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS SWEPT THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF CNTL NC. FURTHER NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STRENGTHENING
INHIBITION WILL FAVOR A DRY BUT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD AND
HUMID NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS OF 1243 PM SATURDAY...
* SIMILAR WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON SUNDAY WILL CLOSELY RESEMBLE THAT OF TODAY,
WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST. THE ONLY
SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE
WEAKER WITH H5 HEIGHTS SITTING AT 592DM TODAY, BECOMING 590DM
TOMORROW. AS SUCH, THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
MAY BE GREATER THAN TODAY, WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN SHORT LIVED PULSE CONVECTION, WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY SIMILAR WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR
HIGHS/LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY...
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST,
DIPPING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE INCREASED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ASSOC DEEP LAYER ASCENT. OTHERWISE, DAILY AND
MOSTLY-DIURNAL POPS THE REMAINING DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE AT
OR BELOW CLIMO CHANCES, ESP LATE IN THE WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TEMPS DURING THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND HOT, WITH
PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE
THAT DAY WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OVERNIGHT, RWI IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO
HAVE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE AIRPORT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RDU ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION - ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED AT
RDU, BUT MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN FELL TO THE NORTHWEST IN DURHAM.
DURING DAYTIME HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AT INT/GSO.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AT MOST SITES, PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO FAY/RWI ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY, WITH
INT/GSO LIKELY REMAINING DRY AND ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
OTHER SITES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...GREEN
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