335
FXUS62 KRAH 290706
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN ALL LOCATIONS, BUT GREATER COVERAGE TO THE
WEST THAN TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTION ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HAD SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND ANY REMNANTS OF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL ALSO SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR TODAY'S CONVECTION. WITHOUT A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS, HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
MINIMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY'S CONVECTION AND MONDAY'S
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CITES
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AS
THE PRIMARY REASON FOR A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRIAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY...
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST,
DIPPING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE INCREASED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ASSOC DEEP LAYER ASCENT. OTHERWISE, DAILY AND
MOSTLY-DIURNAL POPS THE REMAINING DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE AT
OR BELOW CLIMO CHANCES, ESP LATE IN THE WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TEMPS DURING THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND HOT, WITH
PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE
THAT DAY WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OVERNIGHT, RWI IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO
HAVE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE AIRPORT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RDU ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION - ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED AT
RDU, BUT MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN FELL TO THE NORTHWEST IN DURHAM.
DURING DAYTIME HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AT INT/GSO.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AT MOST SITES, PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO FAY/RWI ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY, WITH
INT/GSO LIKELY REMAINING DRY AND ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
OTHER SITES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...GREEN
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