295
FXUS62 KRAH 291020
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN ALL LOCATIONS, BUT GREATER COVERAGE TO THE
WEST THAN TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTION ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HAD SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND ANY REMNANTS OF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL ALSO SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR TODAY'S CONVECTION. WITHOUT A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS, HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
MINIMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY'S CONVECTION AND MONDAY'S
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CITES
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AS
THE PRIMARY REASON FOR A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRIAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY..
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA ON TUES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AND
PREFRONTAL CLOUD COVER, BUT THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-25KT. SO WHILE A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST, IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNUSUALLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT.
THE COLD FRONT OR EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUES
EVENING, BUT IS LIKELY TO HANG UP OVER EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS WED BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORMS THU-SAT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES MOSTLY IN THE 90S DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE ALL TERMINALS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z, THE
ONLY TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ARE THE PROB30 GROUPS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONTINUED FOR INT/GSO. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AT MOST SITES, PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO FAY/RWI ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY, WITH
INT/GSO LIKELY REMAINING DRY AND ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
OTHER SITES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...GREEN
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