744
FXUS62 KRAH 291404
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1004 AM SUNDAY...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW
OVER GA/SC, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO
NC. AT THE SURFACE, A SUBTLE BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC, EVIDENT BY THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO REMNANT OUTFLOW REMAINS FROM
SATURDAY'S STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY, TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S (NORTH) TO MID 80S (SOUTH).
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND INTO NC TODAY, I WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. GIVEN WEAK
FORCING, TEASING OUT THE FINER DETAILS FROM CAMS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
BUT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IS LIKELY TO BE A FAVORED AREA, ALONG WITH
THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY.
COLLIDING OUTFLOWS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS WOULD SUGGEST ELEVATED
POPS ARE WARRANTED EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED POPS
ARE LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY VERY MINOR REVISIONS BASED ON
INCOMING 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET,
EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
SIMILARLY, TEMPS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 90S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 90S IN THE EAST. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S (WEST) TO MID 70S (EAST).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
MINIMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY'S CONVECTION AND MONDAY'S
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CITES
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AS
THE PRIMARY REASON FOR A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRIAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY..
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA ON TUES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AND
PREFRONTAL CLOUD COVER, BUT THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-25KT. SO WHILE A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST, IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNUSUALLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT.
THE COLD FRONT OR EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUES
EVENING, BUT IS LIKELY TO HANG UP OVER EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS WED BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORMS THU-SAT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES MOSTLY IN THE 90S DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE ALL TERMINALS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z, THE
ONLY TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ARE THE PROB30 GROUPS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONTINUED FOR INT/GSO. WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AT MOST SITES, PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO FAY/RWI ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY, WITH
INT/GSO LIKELY REMAINING DRY AND ONLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
OTHER SITES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...GREEN
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