382
FXUS62 KRAH 291736
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TWO AREAS HAVE BLOSSOMED THUS FAR: THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED/REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY'S CONVECTION, AND THE
FOOTHILLS TO OUR WEST. IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS, THE CU FIELD HAS
RAPIDLY MATURED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.
CAMS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO CATCH ON TO THE PRESENT SITUATION. THEY
DON'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL
MUCH LATER TODAY, AND EVEN THEN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST ENTHUSED ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND LARGELY OVERLOOKING
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN REALITY, IT WOULD SEEM THAT BOTH OF THESE
AREAS WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCAL POINTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH
COLLIDING OUTFLOWS SERVING TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA ALONG US-1. I'M GOING TO MAINTAIN THE
IDEA OF POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY, KEEPING THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT, BUT ACCOUNTING FOR STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF CENTRAL NC. THE STALLED UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE OF ENOUGH CONCERN TO WARRANT POPS THAT
ARE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD OTHERWISE INDICATE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR LATE DAY HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUES ON MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
THE STALLED UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW, EVENTUALLY
OPENING UP A BIT AND MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. MUCH LIKE TODAY, STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW, REMNANT BOUNDARIES,
AND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FAVORABLY FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH AT LEAST SOME 20-30
PERCENT VALUES EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR COLLIDING OUTFLOWS
AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING AND BRING A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUES AND
TOWARDS THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR CANADIAN PROVINCE BY WED
MORNING. GENERALLY WEAK H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND REMNANT MCVS WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUES
INTO WED MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT MORE LIKELY AN EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
SHOULD FOSTER WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER
THE CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK (15 TO 20 KTS) AND
BACKING WIND PROFILE ABOVE 500MB SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPEST STORMS.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A SLOW MOVING FRONT, AND PWAT AROUND
2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL MAKE AT LEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY LATE TUES INTO
WED MORNING.
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
HANG UP OVER EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS
WED BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORMS THU-SAT AND KEEP HEAT
INDICES MOSTLY IN THE 90S DESPITE HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THE
MOST FAVORED AREA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS AS WELL. GOING TO INTRODUCE
A FEW HOURS OF THUNDER AT ALL SITES WITH THE MAIN CHANCES BETWEEN
19Z-23Z, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. OUTSIDE OF ERRATIC AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS, EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT BUT GIVEN THERE WASN'T MUCH
THIS MORNING, I AM GOING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
IN NATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF STORMS, VFR WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT/BLS
AVIATION...LEINS
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