279
FXUS62 KRAH 300518
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GET HUNG UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 852 PM SUNDAY...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL NC, HOWEVER WE
ARE STILL WATCHING ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP IN
AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS AND WHERE WE HAVE NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER FROM DAYTIME ACTIVITY. TWO PRIMARY AREAS WE ARE WATCHING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDE THE NW PIEDMONT, WHERE STORMS ARE
STILL DEVELOPING TIED TO AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. STORMS
HERE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TRIAD COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF ISOLATED
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE OTHER AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
TRIANGLE. A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS AIDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. GENERALLY SPEAKING, STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKES OVER, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THE VA BORDER DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT ON FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT
GIVEN RAINS ACROSS THE TRIAD, THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED THIS IN THE FORECAST, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA SEE PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL NC TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NW TO
LOW TO MID 70S SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUES ON MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
THE STALLED UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW, EVENTUALLY
OPENING UP A BIT AND MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. MUCH LIKE TODAY, STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW, REMNANT BOUNDARIES,
AND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FAVORABLY FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH AT LEAST SOME 20-30
PERCENT VALUES EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR COLLIDING OUTFLOWS
AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING AND BRING A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUES AND
TOWARDS THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR CANADIAN PROVINCE BY WED
MORNING. GENERALLY WEAK H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND REMNANT MCVS WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUES
INTO WED MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT MORE LIKELY AN EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
SHOULD FOSTER WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER
THE CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK (15 TO 20 KTS) AND
BACKING WIND PROFILE ABOVE 500MB SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPEST STORMS.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A SLOW MOVING FRONT, AND PWAT AROUND
2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL MAKE AT LEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY LATE TUES INTO
WED MORNING.
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
HANG UP OVER EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS
WED BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORMS THU-SAT AND KEEP HEAT
INDICES MOSTLY IN THE 90S DESPITE HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WITH SOME RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF
INT/GSO ON SUNDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND
THOSE SITES AROUND SUNRISE. COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP AT INT/GSO WHERE THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE THE HIGHEST. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT ALL
TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WIND REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT FAY/RWI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, DRY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT/BLS
AVIATION...GREEN
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