862
FXUS62 KRAH 300645
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
YET ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE GREATEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WEST COMPARED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE TRIAD, THEN
FIZZLE OUT BY MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, WITH LOWS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE ONTARIO
SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY AND CONTINUING INTO TEXAS. OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED TO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION, TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR
TWO COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE CONSIDERING
THERE WOULD BE MODEST INSTABILITY, BUT MINIMAL SHEAR TO ORGANIZE
STORMS. IN ADDITION, IF THINGS TREND CLOSER TO THE 00Z RUN OF THE
HRRR, AN EVEN SLOWER SOLUTION, MORE PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD BE FURTHER REDUCED. WILL NOT WAIT
FOR THE NEW DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO SEND OUT THIS
DISCUSSION, BUT THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ERO INCLUDED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEST OF I-95 IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 136 PM SUNDAY...
* COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING AND BRING A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUES AND
TOWARDS THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR CANADIAN PROVINCE BY WED
MORNING. GENERALLY WEAK H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND REMNANT MCVS WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUES
INTO WED MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT MORE LIKELY AN EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
SHOULD FOSTER WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER
THE CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK (15 TO 20 KTS) AND
BACKING WIND PROFILE ABOVE 500MB SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ISOLATED WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPEST STORMS.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A SLOW MOVING FRONT, AND PWAT AROUND
2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) WILL MAKE AT LEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY LATE TUES INTO
WED MORNING.
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
HANG UP OVER EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS
WED BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORMS THU-SAT AND KEEP HEAT
INDICES MOSTLY IN THE 90S DESPITE HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WITH SOME RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF
INT/GSO ON SUNDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND
THOSE SITES AROUND SUNRISE. COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP AT INT/GSO WHERE THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE THE HIGHEST. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT ALL
TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WIND REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT FAY/RWI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, DRY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT/BLS
AVIATION...GREEN
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