009
FXUS62 KRAH 011047
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY, THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY
AND ARC INTO TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
INDICATED THAT THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY SINK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MUCH MORE SLOWLY, LIKELY NOT EVEN
ENTERING NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED EAST OF US-1 DURING THE DAYTIME, THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL
WILL FALL TO THE WEST OF US-1 DURING THE DAY, WITH LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS I-95 OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE BULK OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
BE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO ORGANIZING
SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS
NOT BEEN RELEASED YET, THE MONDAY AFTERNOON ISSUANCE HAD MOST OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER/MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 212 AM TUESDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE, EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLD MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT, AS NOTED IN WPC'S MARGINAL ERO
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE BACK EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF I-95 BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY EAST OF OUR CWA BY MID-EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP, SO A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE 90S TEMPS THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S NW AND 70S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 212 AM TUESDAY...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, THUS LOOK FOR BELOW-CLIMO DAILY POPS FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD, IF NOT COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER ALL THREE
DAYS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THOSE THREE DAYS, BUT ONLY
BY A DEW DEGREES.
THEREAFTER, THE GFS AND ECWMF WITH THEIR RECENT RUNS ARE HINTING AT
SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OLD REMNANT BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST (THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY)
LATE THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
MOMENT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY, SO FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY
FEATURE DAILY POPS SLOWLY EDGING BACK UP CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE-WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD, AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WHILE AT 06Z IT APPEARED THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO DEVELOP MVFR STRATUS WAS FAY, THE STRATUS HAS INSTEAD
DEVELOPED AT INT/GSO. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO MID-MORNING, AND STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE OTHER TERMINALS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME LOW CLOUDS.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION, AND THE FORECAST IN THE 12Z TAF MAY
STILL REMAIN TOO FAST. PREVAILING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO/RDU BY THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT RWI/FAY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER AT RDU/RWI/FAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...GREEN
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