324
FXUS62 KRAH 011816
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY, THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY
AND ARC INTO TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
INDICATED THAT THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY SINK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MUCH MORE SLOWLY, LIKELY NOT EVEN
ENTERING NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED EAST OF US-1 DURING THE DAYTIME, THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL
WILL FALL TO THE WEST OF US-1 DURING THE DAY, WITH LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS I-95 OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE BULK OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
BE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO ORGANIZING
SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS
NOT BEEN RELEASED YET, THE MONDAY AFTERNOON ISSUANCE HAD MOST OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER/MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MAINE DOWN
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING OUR
REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE SCATTERED BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD BY THE
MID/LATE MORNING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST, INCREASED CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE US1 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR WEST TO
EAST LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE THE EASTWARD DRYING TREND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS, THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NE, NEAR
THE VA BORDER AND COAST. WHILE IT ONLY EXTENDS A FEW COUNTIES INTO
RAH’S REGION, THIS COULD LATER BE EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND. GENERALLY
EVERYWHERE ELSE IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 1 OF
4). THUS, EVERYONE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL VARY FROM 0.50” TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTH 0.75” TO 1.50” ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.50” TO 2.50” INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS, MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE WEAKENED AND REDUCE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THUS, OVERALL REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY AREA OF INTEREST FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RECENT GFS AND ECWMF
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF FLORIDA.
CURRENT ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK, POPS REMAIN LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE DAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WHILE AT 06Z IT APPEARED THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO DEVELOP MVFR STRATUS WAS FAY, THE STRATUS HAS INSTEAD
DEVELOPED AT INT/GSO. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO MID-MORNING, AND STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE OTHER TERMINALS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME LOW CLOUDS.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION, AND THE FORECAST IN THE 12Z TAF MAY
STILL REMAIN TOO FAST. PREVAILING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO/RDU BY THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT RWI/FAY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER AT RDU/RWI/FAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/SKARI
AVIATION...GREEN
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