627
FXUS62 KRAH 011023
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND
HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY AND
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS, BUT THERE IS NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ONLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
BUT INSTEAD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR VALUES IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, TUESDAY'S WEATHER
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WEATHER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. BOTH HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT
70S AND 50S WILL OCCUR AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...
* SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES WED WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK OFF A BIT SUNDAY.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OVER EASTERN NOAM
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF BERMUDA RIDGING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPS TO NC, BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS E INTO NC, KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN BY SUN. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAKENING AND NARROWING HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO
STEADILY INCREASING WAA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THU BEFORE STALLING OUT AS THE
MEAN STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN NC, AND WHILE
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST IN OUR AREA, WITH PWS BRIEFLY
RISING TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PROMPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY OVER OUR NW THU INTO THU NIGHT. ONCE THIS WAVE SHIFTS TO OUR
N, THOUGH, DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN OUR
SE. SAT SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS LIKELY TO SHIFT E THROUGH OUR
AREA SUN, WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC. WHILE THE LOWERING THICKNESSES AND UPTICK IN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
BUMP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, THERE IS
ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULTANT PUSH OF THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA THAT FAVORS
KEEPING OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS MILD, WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IN OUR NW
SUN. -GIH
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
DAYTIME, CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAFS. THE IND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AT
RDU/FAY/RWI.
OUTLOOK: THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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