850
FXUS62 KRAH 011746
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND
HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM MONDAY...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST INTO NC/SC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE COOL AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE SOME SCATTERED
HIGH THIN CIRRUS AND FEW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE READINGS ARE A GOOD 8-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM MONDAY...
COOL AND DRY PATTERN PERSISTS.
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, TUESDAY'S WEATHER
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 105 PM MONDAY...
* BRIEFLY HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
CENTRAL NC TO NEAR NORMAL.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
DISPERSE THROUGH THE DAY AND DEFER TO THE MASS RESPONSE FROM THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RETURN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE GRADUAL WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI. SAT APPEARS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY (MAXT UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, RANGING FROM SAT AFTERNOON
TO LATE SUN NIGHT, AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON SUN HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A GLANCING
SHOT OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PERTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURS
HAVING THE 'BEST' CHANCE. MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE SOME
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE THE TRIAD UP INTO VA. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OVERLAP OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND ASSISTANCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE, BUT TIMING IS RESULTING
IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 146 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
DAYTIME, CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAFS. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE GUSTS TO 15-20KT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY PM, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESSENTIALLY THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT
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