637
FXUS62 KRAH 020431
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND
HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM MONDAY...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST INTO NC/SC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE COOL AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE SOME SCATTERED
HIGH THIN CIRRUS AND FEW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE READINGS ARE A GOOD 8-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM MONDAY...
COOL AND DRY PATTERN PERSISTS.
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, TUESDAY'S WEATHER
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK OFF SUNDAY/MONDAY.
* SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NW THU, THEN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
THU/THU NIGHT: THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL PWS THU, BUT PASSAGE OF A WEAK PERTURBATION
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH W AND N NC LATE THU, SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND E NOAM, WILL BRING
JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE NW CWA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG, THOUGH, AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER S ONTARIO, AND CAPE WILL BE
SMALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FROM DEEP MIXING, SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED, AND WILL HAVE LOW POPS NW INTO THE EVENING. WITH
NARROW/WEAKENING/EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL
THICKNESSES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRI-SAT NIGHT: THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER S
ONTARIO FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST
AND E GREAT LAKES, LEAVING LIGHTER AND LOOSELY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE SW OVER NC. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRI/SAT, ALLOWING OUR THICKNESSES TO CLIMB TO 10-15
M ABOVE NORMAL BY SAT AS THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PLACES US IN A
LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. FRI IS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH LITTLE
TO NO CAPE, MINIMAL SHEAR, NEAR NORMAL PWS, AND NO MECHANISMS
EVIDENT TO FORCE ASCENT. AS THE ONTARIO LOW SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC WITH
SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH ITS BASE FROM ONTARIO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
NW, BUT THE STEERING FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL KEEP IT TO OUR NW
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FRI HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, THEN SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WITH THE GREATER HEAT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING PW SAT, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE,
PEAKING NEAR 1000 J/KG, AND WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SUN-MON: UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E OVER THE E CONUS, HOW AMPLIFIED IT WILL
BE WHEN IT ARRIVES, AND THUS HOW QUICKLY THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA. OUR MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC, VEERING SLIGHTLY WITH TIME, BUT WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AS THE STRONGEST FLOW AROUND THE E CANADA LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN AND SWIFT PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS THAT THE FRONT WILL AT
LEAST EDGE INTO OUR NW SUN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERALL, AND WILL
HAVE CHANCES FOR LATE-DAY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION MAINLY S AND E OF
THE TRIANGLE SUN. AS THE FRONT SHOULD NUDGE FURTHER SE, EXPECT
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTREME SE ONLY MON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S SUN AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON. -GIH
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
TAF SITES)(KFAY AND KRWI) AROUND SUNRISE. THE EARLIER NELY GUSTINESS
OF 15-20KT HAS DIMINISHED, WITH LIGHT E-NELY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW BUT NOT ZERO. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND(TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL SPREAD) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...CBL
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