249
FXUS62 KRAH 020516
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND
HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
EXPECT MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES,
MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS, THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY - UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS, 50S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MAY ACTUALLY BE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,
THAT WILL DECREASE, BUT NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE, THE DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS, WITH LESS CLOUD COVER, EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS
RISING INTO THE 80S. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURE DURING THE DAYTIME,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THU WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK OFF SUNDAY/MONDAY.
* SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NW THU, THEN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
THU/THU NIGHT: THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL PWS THU, BUT PASSAGE OF A WEAK PERTURBATION
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH W AND N NC LATE THU, SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND E NOAM, WILL BRING
JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE NW CWA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG, THOUGH, AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER S ONTARIO, AND CAPE WILL BE
SMALL WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FROM DEEP MIXING, SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED, AND WILL HAVE LOW POPS NW INTO THE EVENING. WITH
NARROW/WEAKENING/EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL
THICKNESSES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRI-SAT NIGHT: THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER S
ONTARIO FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST
AND E GREAT LAKES, LEAVING LIGHTER AND LOOSELY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE SW OVER NC. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRI/SAT, ALLOWING OUR THICKNESSES TO CLIMB TO 10-15
M ABOVE NORMAL BY SAT AS THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PLACES US IN A
LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. FRI IS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH LITTLE
TO NO CAPE, MINIMAL SHEAR, NEAR NORMAL PWS, AND NO MECHANISMS
EVIDENT TO FORCE ASCENT. AS THE ONTARIO LOW SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC WITH
SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH ITS BASE FROM ONTARIO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
NW, BUT THE STEERING FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL KEEP IT TO OUR NW
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FRI HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, THEN SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WITH THE GREATER HEAT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING PW SAT, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE,
PEAKING NEAR 1000 J/KG, AND WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SUN-MON: UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E OVER THE E CONUS, HOW AMPLIFIED IT WILL
BE WHEN IT ARRIVES, AND THUS HOW QUICKLY THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA. OUR MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC, VEERING SLIGHTLY WITH TIME, BUT WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AS THE STRONGEST FLOW AROUND THE E CANADA LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE A CLEAN AND SWIFT PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS THAT THE FRONT WILL AT
LEAST EDGE INTO OUR NW SUN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERALL, AND WILL
HAVE CHANCES FOR LATE-DAY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION MAINLY S AND E OF
THE TRIANGLE SUN. AS THE FRONT SHOULD NUDGE FURTHER SE, EXPECT
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTREME SE ONLY MON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S SUN AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON. -GIH
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO HINT THAT SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE, IT IS A CLOUDY OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS, AND
THINK THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE FEW IN NATURE.
THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AT INT/GSO
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AND AT ALL SITES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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