085
FXUS62 KRAH 021741
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A
LARGE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
AS THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE US
COAST WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS A TAD
WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A TAD WARMER WITH
EVERYWHERE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
* BRIEFLY HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
CENTRAL NC TO NEAR NORMAL.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
DISPERSE THROUGH THE DAY AND DEFER TO THE MASS RESPONSE FROM THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RETURN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND
PROVIDE GRADUAL WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI. SAT APPEARS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY (MAXT UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RANGING FROM SAT AFTERNOON TO
LATE SUN NIGHT, AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON SUN HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED, BUT MAY BE TRENDING UPWARD A BIT FOR
LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT FROM 21Z
TO 03Z, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF WHICH IS THE RRFS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
STILL FIGHTING WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE INITIAL SURFACE MOISTURE
SURGE. HOWEVER, IF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CAN DEVELOP DEEPER
CONVECTION, 25-35 KTS OF SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT, INCLUDING THE TRIAD. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OVERLAP OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND ASSISTANCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE, BUT TIMING IS RESULTING IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND KEEPS POPS 15 TO 35%.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
OCCASIONAL NELY GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS. WHILE KINT AND KGSO SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF IFR TO
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 07 TO 12Z ACROSS
EASTERN SITES(KRWI, KFAY) AND POSSIBLY KRDU SITES. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, YIELDING DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS, MAINLY AT KINT AND KGSO. A STRONGER COLDER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.
OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS,
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT
AVIATION...CBL
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