124
FXUS62 KRAH 030457
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDA, WITH COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A
LARGE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
AS THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE US
COAST WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS A TAD
WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A TAD WARMER WITH
EVERYWHERE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN COOLING BACK
OFF STARTING SUNDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRI-SAT NIGHT: THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER
ONTARIO FRI, BEFORE OPENING AND LIFTING INTO W QUEBEC BY SAT, WITH
TROUGHING AND STRONG CYCLONIC STEERING FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT TO OUR NW FRI, OVER OR JUST W OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BACK INTO KY/TN, BEFORE NUDGING BACK NW SAT
AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING OFFSHORE WILL PLACE NC IN A
PREFRONTAL WAA PATTERN, REINFORCED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS MID
LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
RESULTING IN CLIMBING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT. FRI IS LIKELY TO BE DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE, MINIMAL
SHEAR, NEAR NORMAL PWS, AND NO MECHANISMS EVIDENT TO FORCE ASCENT.
FRI HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE PREFRONTAL
HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD SAT, BRINGING OUR WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR, BUT WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING PW TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE
TO 500-1000 J/KG SAT, SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUN-TUE: LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER E NOAM EARLY SUN, WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR W, BUT A SERIES OF WAVES DIVING THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY
HELP NUDGE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD. THE AXIS WILL STAY TO
OUR W THROUGH SUN, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LAGGING SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH AT AND S OF OUR LATITUDE, SO IT'S UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL
BE A SUFFICIENT PUSH ALOFT TO GET THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS SUN. THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN, ESP ACROSS THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HOT TEMPS, WITH SUN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE, BUT THE PRONOUNCED COOLING WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MON/TUE WHEN THE COOL POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS E OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FINALLY PROVIDES ENOUGH IMPETUS TO
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR S AND
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY MON MORNING, AS THE SURFACE HIGH'S CENTER
TRACKS OVER LK ERIE AND LK ONTARIO, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO MAINE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUE. THE RESULTING NE FLOW AND CAA IN A
WEDGING CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN
THE SE ONLY. -GIH
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z/THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW HOURS IN
WHICH PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RWI AND RDU
AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM, MAINLY AT KINT AND KGSO. A STRONGER COLDER FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM. OVERALL, GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT/CBL
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