429
FXUS62 KRAH 031048
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL APPROACH
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER MAKING ITS WAY INTO FORSYTH
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH
SOME UPPER 70S ARE STILL LIKELY. WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S, SOME LOCATIONS WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A NEARBY SURFACE LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PASS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST FORECAST
ALMOST COMPLETELY REMOVES THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS THAT FORSYTH COUNTY COULD POSSIBLY BE
CLIPPED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A SHIFT IN THE WIND FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO INCREASE ABOUT 5
DEGREES, WITH ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S.
SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL BE WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ALL LOCATIONS
FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN COOLING BACK
OFF STARTING SUNDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRI-SAT NIGHT: THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER
ONTARIO FRI, BEFORE OPENING AND LIFTING INTO W QUEBEC BY SAT, WITH
TROUGHING AND STRONG CYCLONIC STEERING FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT TO STALL OUT TO OUR NW FRI, OVER OR JUST W OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BACK INTO KY/TN, BEFORE NUDGING BACK NW SAT
AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING OFFSHORE WILL PLACE NC IN A
PREFRONTAL WAA PATTERN, REINFORCED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS MID
LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
RESULTING IN CLIMBING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT. FRI IS LIKELY TO BE DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE, MINIMAL
SHEAR, NEAR NORMAL PWS, AND NO MECHANISMS EVIDENT TO FORCE ASCENT.
FRI HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE PREFRONTAL
HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD SAT, BRINGING OUR WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR, BUT WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING PW TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE
TO 500-1000 J/KG SAT, SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUN-TUE: LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER E NOAM EARLY SUN, WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR W, BUT A SERIES OF WAVES DIVING THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY
HELP NUDGE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD. THE AXIS WILL STAY TO
OUR W THROUGH SUN, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LAGGING SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH AT AND S OF OUR LATITUDE, SO IT'S UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL
BE A SUFFICIENT PUSH ALOFT TO GET THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS SUN. THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN, ESP ACROSS THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HOT TEMPS, WITH SUN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE, BUT THE PRONOUNCED COOLING WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MON/TUE WHEN THE COOL POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS E OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FINALLY PROVIDES ENOUGH IMPETUS TO
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR S AND
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY MON MORNING, AS THE SURFACE HIGH'S CENTER
TRACKS OVER LK ERIE AND LK ONTARIO, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO MAINE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUE. THE RESULTING NE FLOW AND CAA IN A
WEDGING CONFIGURATION WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN
THE SE ONLY. -GIH
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES AT RWI, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR OUT OF THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE DRY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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