233
FXUS62 KRAH 040529
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ENERGY FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF
SHOWERS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EASTWARD TREND
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, INTRODUCED A LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NW PORTIONS OF FORSYTH COUNTY FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE IS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAINS, THE REST OF THE AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR
AND SUNNY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 80S NORTH TO MID
80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER
GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER
50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHING
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT TOWARDS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER OUR REGION AND KEEPING
PRECIP TO THE NW. ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OF LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION BUT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, AND WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANT BE
RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
80S NW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE SATURDAY, THEN COOLING BACK OFF
STARTING SUNDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR NW
THROUGH SAT, AS WILL THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER E HUDSON BAY SSW THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH BASE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP NUDGE THE FRONT E OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT, BUT WE'LL OVERALL REMAIN IN THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH DECENT INSOLATION DURING THE DAY,
PUSHING PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES UP TO 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS AND NBM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE BASED
MIXING AND WARM MID LEVELS, SO DESPITE DAYTIME HEATING, THE
PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG IS MOSTLY UNDER 30% AND HINGES
A LOT ON HOW MUCH PREFRONTAL DEWPOINT RECOVERY CAN BE ACHIEVED. DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, JUST AROUND 20 KTS, AND PWS
WILL TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SAT BUT MOSTLY JUST OVER THE NW
CWA. THUS WILL STILL INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NW SAT AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO
THE EVENING, DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS SAT FROM AROUND
90 N TO THE LOW 90S S, WITH ISOLATED MID 90S SE. SLIGHT COOLING IS
POSSIBLE NW SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MOST ABRUPT PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO CENTRAL NC WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUN. LOWS FROM THE LOW-
MID 60S NW TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SE.
SUN-WED: A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER N IL/LK MICHIGAN EARLY
SUN IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH IN/OH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES
SUN/SUN NIGHT, HELPING TO NUDGE THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD
AND PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SE THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA BY MON
MORNING (ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SLOWING AND RESIDING
LONGER ACROSS OUR FAR SE). BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ITSELF WILL BE
BROADENING AND DEAMPLIFYING GRADUALLY, AND THE SLOWING AND DAMPENING
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH S OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND REDUCED MID LEVEL SPEEDS STILL BRING ABOUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CWA SUN, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW STILL WITH A COMPONENT PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUN INTO SUN EVENING,
HIGHEST FROM THE TRIANGLE S AND E, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NW TO
THE LOW 80S SE. THE COOL POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
N PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUN MORNING WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE S GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MON, THEN CROSS THE E GREAT LAKES/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY WED, ALL THE WHILE NOSING SE THEN S AND SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS N FL.
MULTI-MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW, 25
TO 35 M BELOW NORMAL, SUGGESTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S (PERHAPS
NEAR 80 SE) MON-WED, DESPITE DECENT SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH AREAS E OF
HIGHWAY 1 SHOULD SEE GREATER HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
AXIS OVERHEAD FROM SW TO NE. NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SE EACH DAY MON-WED, BUT
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. -GIH
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 639 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED OVER KINT/KGSO FELL AS VIRGA AND HAVE
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE SHOWS
A GOOD SIGNAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, WITH LATEST
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CREEPING THOSE LOWER VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO
KINT/KGSO. WHILE CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH THAT THESE SITES WILL GO SUB-
VFR TONIGHT, DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 8 TO 12Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, SLY FLOW WILL PICK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
FRIDAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF
STRATUS/FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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