396
FXUS62 KRAH 041700
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD
TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO OHIO AND MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
EAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA,
REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRIAD. FOR NOW,
HAVE KEPT THE TRIANGLE FORECAST DRY, BUT THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS IN
THE 00Z HREF INDICATING THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY AS
FAR EAST AS I-95. 30+ KT VALUES OF EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE TRIAD, BUT WITH MUCAPE REACHING UP TO 1000 J/KG,
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE
TRIAD WHERE THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF
COOL TEMPERATURES, BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY'S FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH A
DRY FORECAST LOCALLY. HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE. THE
FORECAST FOR RDU ON FRIDAY IS 91 DEGREES - 90 DEGREES HAS NOT BEEN
REACHED THERE SINCE AUGUST 17. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN NIGHTS, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE RETURNING TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A PRE-FRONTAL WAA
REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT OVER THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE 70S, WITH LOW 70S IN THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED, DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AT INT/GSO,
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS THAT COULD RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SECOND PERIOD THAT COULD RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE,
SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BASED ON RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE - AND IF THE TIME-LAGGED HRRR IS CORRECT, THE PROB30
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO TEMPO GROUPS OR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT INT/GSO, ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK: AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THIS COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...GREEN
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