009
FXUS62 KRAH 050442
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD
TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY...
* ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TN WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE
MIXING OUT INTO LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING BETWEEN THE BREAKS IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW TONGUE OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE SC THROUGH
THE TRIAD INTO CENTRAL VA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW GIVEN THE LOW-END INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, IF DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, 25-35 KTS OF SHEAR WOULD
BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL TO RESULT IN
A BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO, WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO PERSON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. AS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTRUNS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY PLUME, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE TRIANGLE THROUGH 8-10 PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS AND ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ON FRI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNINTERRUPTED WARMING OF LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MINOR TO MODERATE
HEATRISK IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PRIMARY AFFECT ANY INDIVIDUALS WHO
ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION. LOWS WILL MILD AND SETTLE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
* WE'LL TURN MUCH COOLER SUN AND STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY SE SUN, THEN MOSTLY
DRY.
SUN: THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE SE CWA
SUN MORNING, THEN SETTLING INTO SC LATE IN THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TO THE E GREAT LAKES/ W PA/ WV. THE INCOMING
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NW SUN, NEAR
THE IA/IL BORDER, SO THE INITIAL INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA SUN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NE, AS
WE'LL BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET CORE ON THE
E SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS ALONE COMBINED WITH AN
INITIAL DROP IN THICKNESSES POST-FRONT SHOULD BRING A COOLDOWN OF
HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW 80S FAR SE
PRIOR TO THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH. REGARDING POPS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT, ALONG WITH WEAK DPVA WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, AND
PWS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE S AND E. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SLIGHT CHANCE NW TO 30-40% POP SE.
SUN NIGHT-THU: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NE INTO E CANADA, AS A
WEAKER AND BAGGIER TROUGH THEN DIGS TO OUR W, FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MISS VALLEY, THROUGH WED, KEEPING US IN A WEAK SSW
STEERING FLOW. THIS BAGGY TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THEN, AS CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO ITS BASE, WILL
AMPLIFY INTO A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA BY THU. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH, NOSING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS ITS CENTER
TRACKS FROM IN ACROSS OH, LK ERIE, NY, NEW ENGLAND, THEN OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, SAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO IN S SAMPSON COUNTY, THEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OLD FRONTAL
ZONE OFF THE SE COAST WILL NUDGE INLAND TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH RESULTS IN A NARROWING AND WEAKENING RIDGE IN
OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WED, JUST AS THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA AND SCRAPES OVER W AND N NC. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LARGELY GONE BY THU, REPLACED BY A WARMER AIR MASS WITH THICKNESSES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, ATTENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU,
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES LATE THU,
BUT WE SHOULD STAY IN THE MILD AIR THROUGH THU. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON-WED, THEN 80 TO 85 THU. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 838 PM THURSDAY...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH REMNANT
STRATIFORM RAIN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED OTHERWISE, EXCEPT SOME
LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG COULD FORM AT KINT/KGSO A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE LARGELY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THIS
COULD ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/DANCO
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