338
FXUS62 KRAH 050603
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD
TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
MANY PARTS OF THE TRIAD RECEIVED ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF
RAIN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE.
WHILE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA,
WHERE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE, THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. AS OF
MIDNIGHT, THE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK AND
SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY. WHILE THAT FRONT WILL FADE APART TODAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT REACH ANY FARTHER
EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING, HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN NIGHTS IN MOST
LOCATIONS, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH COVERAGE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY EVENING EXCEPT
FOR SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30+ KNOTS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR STATE, WHILE MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1000-
2000 J/KG, SIMILAR TO VALUES THAT WERE FORECAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY'S VALUES. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO TONIGHT'S
VALUES, SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE TRIAD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
* WE'LL TURN MUCH COOLER SUN AND STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY SE SUN, THEN MOSTLY
DRY.
SUN: THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE SE CWA
SUN MORNING, THEN SETTLING INTO SC LATE IN THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TO THE E GREAT LAKES/ W PA/ WV. THE INCOMING
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NW SUN, NEAR
THE IA/IL BORDER, SO THE INITIAL INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE CWA SUN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NE, AS
WE'LL BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET CORE ON THE
E SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS ALONE COMBINED WITH AN
INITIAL DROP IN THICKNESSES POST-FRONT SHOULD BRING A COOLDOWN OF
HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW 80S FAR SE
PRIOR TO THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH. REGARDING POPS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT, ALONG WITH WEAK DPVA WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, AND
PWS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE S AND E. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SLIGHT CHANCE NW TO 30-40% POP SE.
SUN NIGHT-THU: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NE INTO E CANADA, AS A
WEAKER AND BAGGIER TROUGH THEN DIGS TO OUR W, FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MISS VALLEY, THROUGH WED, KEEPING US IN A WEAK SSW
STEERING FLOW. THIS BAGGY TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THEN, AS CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO ITS BASE, WILL
AMPLIFY INTO A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA BY THU. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH, NOSING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS ITS CENTER
TRACKS FROM IN ACROSS OH, LK ERIE, NY, NEW ENGLAND, THEN OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, SAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO IN S SAMPSON COUNTY, THEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OLD FRONTAL
ZONE OFF THE SE COAST WILL NUDGE INLAND TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH RESULTS IN A NARROWING AND WEAKENING RIDGE IN
OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WED, JUST AS THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA AND SCRAPES OVER W AND N NC. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LARGELY GONE BY THU, REPLACED BY A WARMER AIR MASS WITH THICKNESSES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, ATTENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU,
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES LATE THU,
BUT WE SHOULD STAY IN THE MILD AIR THROUGH THU. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON-WED, THEN 80 TO 85 THU. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT RDU/FAY/RWI. HOWEVER, FOG IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO, PRIMARILY FUELED BY ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN
THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH GREATER RAINFALL
TOTALS AT INT, HAVE GONE WITH 1/4SM MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP THERE,
BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH 1/2SM MENTION IN THE GSO TEMPO GROUP WHERE
LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END MID MORNING, WITH
WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS SHIFTS TO FAY/RWI EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, DRY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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