144
FXUS62 KRAH 051455
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1055 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL OUT AND HOLD
TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
MANY PARTS OF THE TRIAD RECEIVED ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF
RAIN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE.
WHILE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA,
WHERE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE, THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. AS OF
MIDNIGHT, THE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW YORK AND
SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY. WHILE THAT FRONT WILL FADE APART TODAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT REACH ANY FARTHER
EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING, HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN NIGHTS IN MOST
LOCATIONS, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THE CORE OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
NC AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
12Z SUN. HOWEVER, AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVELY
PERTURBED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BE RIDDLED WITH SMALL SCALE MCV'S THAT WILL ACT AS
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFT AND BRING INITIALLY STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY SAT AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN 1000-1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CO-
LOCATED WITHIN THE GREATER 0-3KM INSTABILITY PLUME. ADDITIONALLY,
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNON. STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 20-30 KTS, BUT THE KINEMATIC PROFILE
IS EXTREMELY ERRATIC WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION TO COLD-
POOL DYNAMICS, WHICH SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WITH DCAPE > 900
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES > 8.5 C/KM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH MORE-OR-LESS EQUAL
CHANCES ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1420M, WHICH IS 20-25M GREATER THAN NORMAL,
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CAN OCCUR QUICKLY
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IF
SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTSIDE AND IN THE DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...
* TRANSITION TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* GRADUAL WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC
EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
BE MOVING INTO SC. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE HUMID AIRMASS PRECEDING THE FROPA, BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING WILL KEEP THUNDER AND SEVERE CHANCES EXTREMELY
LIMITED. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN, ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO SUN AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC
OUTSIDE OF VERY NEAR THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NC AND NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER.
SUN NIGHT-THU: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NE INTO E CANADA, AS A
WEAKER AND BAGGIER TROUGH THEN DIGS TO OUR W, FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MISS VALLEY, THROUGH WED, KEEPING US IN A WEAK SSW
STEERING FLOW. THIS BAGGY TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THEN, AS CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO ITS BASE, WILL
AMPLIFY INTO A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA BY THU. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH, NOSING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS ITS CENTER
TRACKS FROM IN ACROSS OH, LAKE ERIE, NY, NEW ENGLAND, THEN OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, SAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO IN S SAMPSON COUNTY, THEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OLD FRONTAL
ZONE OFF THE SE COAST WILL NUDGE INLAND TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH RESULTS IN A NARROWING AND WEAKENING RIDGE IN
OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WED, JUST AS THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA AND SCRAPES OVER W AND N NC. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LARGELY GONE BY THU, REPLACED BY A WARMER AIR MASS WITH THICKNESSES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, ATTENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU,
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES LATE THU,
BUT WE SHOULD STAY IN THE MILD AIR THROUGH THU. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON-WED, THEN 80 TO 85 THU. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: LIFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID
MORNING WITH WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT RDU/FAY/RWI WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, RECENT
MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT THE FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE
EAST OF FAY/RWI.
OUTLOOK: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, DRY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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