115
FXUS62 KRAH 051655
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY,
FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
SOME STRATUS HAS HELD ON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, SO
HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT DELAYED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THE 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE AREA, WITH
DEWPOINT MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSES SHOWED THE DEEP H25 LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO, A S/W OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH SWLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. AT H5, 70-80 METER
HEIGHT FALLS WERE ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL NC. THERE WAS ALSO STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT H7 AND H85. THE S/W SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY CLIPPING SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT A PIEDMONT TROUGH TO SIT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD STAY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z, MAKING
IT AS FAR AS THE APPALACHIANS. PRIMARILY EXPECT JUST A BIT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS AFT/EVE WITH THE S/W ALOFT, ALTHOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE HRRR HAS SOME
400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE, THOUGH THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW, 10 KTS OR LESS. HRRR PWATS GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES W-E. HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH MID/UPPER
80S NW TO LOW/MID 90S SE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S (MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED 70S) TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THE CORE OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
NC AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
12Z SUN. HOWEVER, AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVELY
PERTURBED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BE RIDDLED WITH SMALL SCALE MCV'S THAT WILL ACT AS
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LIFT AND BRING INITIALLY STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY SAT AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN 1000-1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CO-
LOCATED WITHIN THE GREATER 0-3KM INSTABILITY PLUME. ADDITIONALLY,
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 20-30 KTS, BUT THE KINEMATIC PROFILE
IS EXTREMELY ERRATIC WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION TO COLD-
POOL DYNAMICS, WHICH SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WITH DCAPE > 900
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES > 8.5 C/KM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH MORE-OR-LESS EQUAL
CHANCES ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1420M, WHICH IS 20-25M GREATER THAN NORMAL,
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CAN OCCUR QUICKLY
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IF
SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTSIDE AND IN THE DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...
* TRANSITION TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* GRADUAL WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC
EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
BE MOVING INTO SC. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE HUMID AIRMASS PRECEDING THE FROPA, BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING WILL KEEP THUNDER AND SEVERE CHANCES EXTREMELY
LIMITED. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN, ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO SUN AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC
OUTSIDE OF VERY NEAR THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NC AND NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER.
SUN NIGHT-THU: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NE INTO E CANADA, AS A
WEAKER AND BAGGIER TROUGH THEN DIGS TO OUR W, FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MISS VALLEY, THROUGH WED, KEEPING US IN A WEAK SSW
STEERING FLOW. THIS BAGGY TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THEN, AS CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO ITS BASE, WILL
AMPLIFY INTO A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA BY THU. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH, NOSING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS ITS CENTER
TRACKS FROM IN ACROSS OH, LAKE ERIE, NY, NEW ENGLAND, THEN OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, SAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO IN S SAMPSON COUNTY, THEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OLD FRONTAL
ZONE OFF THE SE COAST WILL NUDGE INLAND TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS THE
EXITING SURFACE HIGH RESULTS IN A NARROWING AND WEAKENING RIDGE IN
OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WED, JUST AS THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA AND SCRAPES OVER W AND N NC. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LARGELY GONE BY THU, REPLACED BY A WARMER AIR MASS WITH THICKNESSES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, ATTENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU,
WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES LATE THU,
BUT WE SHOULD STAY IN THE MILD AIR THROUGH THU. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S MON-WED, THEN 80 TO 85 THU. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ANY LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AT KINT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR THIS AFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF REACHING KFAY
AND KRWI EARLY SAT MORN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM, BUT COVERAGE
AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY GIVEN TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SAT AFT THROUGH EARLY SUN,
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER/RE-DEVELOP ON SUN. EXPECT THE
USUAL RESTRICTIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION WHERE IT MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ON SUN, SOME SUB-VFR
CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND SUN NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN ON MON, AND LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH WED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS EACH DAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC
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