626
FXUS62 KRAH 060609
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, STALLING OUT ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 208 AM SATURDAY...
* WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH UPPER 80S NW TO LOW/MID 90S
ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 ALONG/EAST OF US-1
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS
A DEEP TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE TO OUR NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NC, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO
APPROACH LATER TONIGHT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, OH/TN VALLEY REGION.
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, WITH CONDITIONS
TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES, DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT, UPWARDS OF 1420-1428 M, SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
90S. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NW, FAVORING MORE UPPER 80S IN THE TRIAD WITH
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL NOT REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 ALONG/EAST OF US-1.
AND GIVEN OUR COOL AUGUST, SOME PEOPLE MIGHT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD
WITH THIS HEAT WE HAVE NOT HAD FOR SOME TIME. THOSE ESPECIALLY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES CAN OCCUR QUICKLY WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AS FOR STORM CHANCES TODAY, NEARLY ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NC HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE CAMS DO
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF US-1, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE HIGHER, RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER
CAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REACHES UPWARDS OF 30 KT. AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING, DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF US-1, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CAMS SUGGEST THE MAIN BATCH OF STORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AN EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
WITH COVERAGE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM EARLY CONVECTION EAST
OF THE TRIAD LATE LAST NIGHT. THINKING THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE
FROM ABOUT 2 TO 8 PM.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN. ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
WANING AFTER MIDNIGHT, CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
MCVS/SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH FROM THE SW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S N TO NEAR 70 IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 208 AM SATURDAY...
COOLER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
LINGERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED H8 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED ANA-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP.
THE NEARBY FRONT, COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
POTENTIAL, WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.
BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. COOL, DRY
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EAST. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SE.
.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 208 AM SATURDAY...
* COOLER THAN NORMAL, MAINLY DRY
OVERVIEW: BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN US
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK, WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED JUST
OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL MODERATION BACK TOWARD
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A MOISTURE-STARVED BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL
LIKELY REINFORCE COOL HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
PRECIP CHANCES: RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR AND ALONG THE
OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN DRY, ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH COULD ALLOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO BRIEFLY
BUCKLE INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 208 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES AT INT THIS MORNING. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL STAYING WEST OF THE TERMINAL, ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WAS
PRESENT IN THE GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE AN MVFR RESTRICTION BETWEEN 10-
13Z. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STRONG CLUSTERING OF STORM POTENTIAL OVER GSO/INT AND RDU
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, MAINLY BETWEEN 19 AND 00-01Z. FOR
THESE TERMINALS, INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR IFR TSRA GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SIGNALS. AT FAY/RWI, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY, SO OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS BETWEEN 22-03Z. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18 KT DURING THE
DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUB-VFR STRATUS TO BUILD IN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. LARGELY VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER, HOWEVER A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE
SE US COULD FAVOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TUE/WED,
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN TERMINALS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
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