367
FXUS62 KRAH 061732
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, STALLING OUT ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 208 AM SATURDAY...
* WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH UPPER 80S NW TO LOW/MID 90S
ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 ALONG/EAST OF US-1
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS
A DEEP TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE TO OUR NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NC, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO
APPROACH LATER TONIGHT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, OH/TN VALLEY REGION.
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, WITH CONDITIONS
TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES, DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT, UPWARDS OF 1420-1428 M, SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
90S. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NW, FAVORING MORE UPPER 80S IN THE TRIAD WITH
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL NOT REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 ALONG/EAST OF US-1.
AND GIVEN OUR COOL AUGUST, SOME PEOPLE MIGHT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD
WITH THIS HEAT WE HAVE NOT HAD FOR SOME TIME. THOSE ESPECIALLY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES CAN OCCUR QUICKLY WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AS FOR STORM CHANCES TODAY, NEARLY ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NC HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE CAMS DO
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF US-1, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE HIGHER, RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER
CAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REACHES UPWARDS OF 30 KT. AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING, DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF US-1, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CAMS SUGGEST THE MAIN BATCH OF STORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AN EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
WITH COVERAGE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM EARLY CONVECTION EAST
OF THE TRIAD LATE LAST NIGHT. THINKING THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE
FROM ABOUT 2 TO 8 PM.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN. ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
WANING AFTER MIDNIGHT, CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
MCVS/SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH FROM THE SW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S N TO NEAR 70 IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S, RISING TO THE
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM A STALLED FRONT OFF THE
COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO RETROGRADE INLAND AT ALL, ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER, MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT INT UNTIL
13Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN UPSTREAM CLOUDS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG CLUSTERING
OF IFR STORM POTENTIAL OVER GSO/INT AND RDU AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, MAINLY BETWEEN 19 AND 00-01Z. AT FAY/RWI, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST, SO KEPT PROB30
GROUPS BETWEEN 22-03Z. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 18 KT DURING THE DAY. LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT
GSO, INT, AND RDU. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO BUILD SOUTH FROM VA. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, WITH SOME SUGGESTING FOG INSTEAD. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW, SHOWED A SUB-VFR
TREND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN MORNING,
WITH STRATUS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SUN AFTN TO EARLY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN/EVE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR FAY/RWI. LARGELY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER, HOWEVER A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COULD FAVOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TUE/WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...KREN
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