106
FXUS62 KRAH 061920
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING, AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, STALLING OUT ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, LAYING
WSW-ENE ACROSS THE TRIAD AS OF 18Z. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THE STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS DCAPE RANGING FROM 700 TO 1000 J/KG FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MLCAPE IS 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. PWATS GENERALLY 1.5-1.7 INCHES.
AS OF THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, FINALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. ALOFT, A S/W WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE, WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO
THE WEST. AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA, LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS EAST OF THE CONVECTION, GENERALLY LOW TO MID
90S. ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT, MID 80S TO LOW 90S, DROPPING INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S WITH THE STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLER AIR, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT LOW/MID 60S NORTH TO UPPER
60S/70 DEGREES SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S, RISING TO THE
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM A STALLED FRONT OFF THE
COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO RETROGRADE INLAND AT ALL, ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER, MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PROGRESS EWD TO AT LEAST THE TRIANGLE
THROUGH THIS EVE, WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET, GENERALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE STORM OVER
GSO PRODUCED GUSTS OF 50-55 KTS, SO EXPECT THAT POSSIBILITY WITH
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH MOST T-STORM WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. THE USUAL SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WHERE THEY OCCUR. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, GENERALLY IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
HOW LOW THE BASE OF THE STRATUS WILL BE, BUT IFR/LIFR IS LIKELY,
POSSIBLY DIPPING TO VLIFR. CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/IFR, BUT
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY LINGER INTO SUN AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVE, ESPECIALLY NEAR FAY/RWI. LARGELY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THEREAFTER, HOWEVER A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COULD
FAVOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TUE/WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...KC/KREN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page