184
FXUS62 KRAH 070008
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
808 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, STALLING OUT ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 808 PM SATURDAY...
* CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING, DRYING OUT GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS
PINNED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MILD TEMPS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE TRIANGLE AND
FAYETTEVILLE. THESE SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NC SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY AND
LACKING AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF COOL AIR (THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL LAG BEHIND UNTIL SUNDAY). COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED. LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S IN THE
NW AND ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S, RISING TO THE
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM A STALLED FRONT OFF THE
COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO RETROGRADE INLAND AT ALL, ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER, MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 808 PM SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE TRIAD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED RDU, AND HAS
REORIENTED ITSELF A BIT WITH RWI/FAY THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE A
BRIEF SHOWER/STORM THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AREA-WIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR (OR LOWER) STRATUS TO DEVELOP/ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTH AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, AND I
MAINTAINED THE EXISTING TEMPOS FOR STRATUS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING OUT
AND LIFTING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY LINGER INTO SUN AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVE, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE EAST OF FAY/RWI. LARGELY VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER, HOWEVER A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE
SE US COULD FAVOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TUE/WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEINS/KREN
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...LEINS/KC/KREN
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