043
FXUS62 KRAH 070554
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN SETTLE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
* MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, WARMEST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY
* CLOUD COVER SLOW TO ERODE WITH A MOIST POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW
* A FEW PATCHY SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDDAY, BUT STORMS SHOULD MAINLY
RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL TUCKED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS OF
NC AND VA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. PLENTY OF LOW
AND MID-LAYER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH IS STILL TO OUR WEST AND THE 850/700 MB FRONTAL
POSITION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY
MON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH, TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SE, EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE OFFSHORE
OF THE SE US LATER TONIGHT AS COOL 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY.
IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BY SOME 15-
20 DEGREES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S
IN THE SE. OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FELT THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE 60S ALONG/NORTH OF US-64 AS
SUGGESTED BY SOME HIGH-RES MODELS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW
STRATUS WITH A MOIST POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW, AT TIMES GUSTING TO 15-20
MPH IN THE SE. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE, EARLIEST TO
LIFT IN THE NW PIEDMONT AND SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FOR RAIN
CHANCES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF US-64 WITH THE
850/700 MB FRONT AND TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY
LARGELY FOCUSES EAST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE
HAVE KEPT 30-PERCENT POPS IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN,
HOWEVER.
LOW ND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTS IN THE
FAR NORTH COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
* DRY, BREEZY, AND COOL
UNDERNEATH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING, PARENT SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST US AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES,
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80, ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. A MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NELY
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS BL
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 50S, THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES WHERE INCREASING/THICKENING CIRRUS SPREADS IN
FROM THE EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
* COOLER THAN NORMAL, MAINLY DRY
OVERVIEW: BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK, WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE WAVERS OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL MODERATION BACK TOWARD
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
PRECIP CHANCES: SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TEMPORARILY FORCE THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY-WEDNEDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE THURSDAY, REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
A MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. STORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION, BUT A FEW LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS GSO, INT, AND RDU INTO MID-
MORNING SUN. OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS INTO EARLY SUN AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER SHOWERS
SATURATES THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO MID-MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN EITHER PATCHY FOG AND/OR VERY LOW CEILINGS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SUN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT GIVEN WEAK WINDS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. A GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS IS FAVORED IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER TO ERODE IN
A MOIST POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17-
20Z IN THE NW TO 22 TO 00Z IN THE SE, SLOWEST AT FAY/RWI AND
EARLIEST AT GSO/INT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUN, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF COVERAGE SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD TAKE HOLD SUN NIGHT. LARGELY VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, HOWEVER A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COULD FAVOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TUE AND WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
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