259
FXUS62 KRAH 011749
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LINGERING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
*SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE REGION WILL
FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE IMELDA, MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND STRONG
(+1030MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED NELY WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL HELP TO SCATTER OUT THE
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S NORTH TO
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT, RENEWED SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, USHERING IN SOME OF THE COOLEST
AIR SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOWS 50 TO 55, WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN COOLER OUTLYING SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
*CLASSIC FALL DAY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CLASSIC FALL DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY(BL DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S) AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NORTH,
TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CRISP, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S NORTH, TO LOWER 50S SOUTH---LIKELY PRODUCING THE FIRST HEATING
DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 148 PM WEDNESDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY,
BRIEFLY DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY, AND THEN RE-AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SFC, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXTEND COOL, DRY
NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE WINDS AND LEAD TO A BIT OF A
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ELY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY).
THE WEEKEND PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE ESELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WHILE DETAILS WRT TO SFC OR
UPPER FORCING ARE HARD TO TEASE OUT THIS FAR OUT, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT GUIDANCE AT LEAST GENERALLY HOLDS SOME SORT OF COASTAL
FRONT/TROUGH NEAR US EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, THINK LIGHT RAIN
COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT IN INT/GSO DURING
THE MORNING, WHILE HIGH CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AT RDU/RWI/FAY. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PROMOTE AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK, WITH A PERIOD OF BKN BASES
AROUND 3-4KFT POSSIBLE AT KRWI AND KRDU.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE IMELDA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...CBL
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