322
FXUS62 KRAH 011931
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
331 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US, THEN
OFFSHORE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN A COUPLE
OF DECAMETERS IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND CNTL APPALACHIANS. RISING HEIGHTS AND CONTRIBUTION TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, 1033-1034 MB CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN QC
WILL BUILD AND RIDGE SWD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.
MARKEDLY DRIER AIR, CHARACTERIZED BY 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT
WILL ADVECT SWD FROM NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON, AND PWS AROUND HALF AN
INCH AND 50% OF NORMAL, WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CNTL NC BY THU
MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS NOW OVER CNTL NC WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, SOME WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
ADVECT FROM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO CNTL AND ESPECIALLY
ERN NC OVERNIGHT, AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED AND
CONCENTRATED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENT REGIME. INITIALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY NELY
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET, AND PROBABLY
FULLY DECOUPLE/CALM IN NON-URBAN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, AND SUPPORT
SEASONABLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 46-54 F (ONLY ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW AVERAGE).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE, AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE,
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND ACROSS THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE
CENTER OF UNDERLYING, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SWD AND
ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WHILE CONTINUING TO
RIDGE SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST.
STRATOCUMULUS, MOSTLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN THE MORNING, SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC WITH DIURNAL HEATING, TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN
OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL, ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW AVERAGE, AND MOSTLY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S THU AFTERNOON AND MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 148 PM WEDNESDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY,
BRIEFLY DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY, AND THEN RE-AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SFC, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXTEND COOL, DRY
NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE WINDS AND LEAD TO A BIT OF A
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ELY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY).
THE WEEKEND PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE ESELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WHILE DETAILS WRT TO SFC OR
UPPER FORCING ARE HARD TO TEASE OUT THIS FAR OUT, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT GUIDANCE AT LEAST GENERALLY HOLDS SOME SORT OF COASTAL
FRONT/TROUGH NEAR US EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, THINK LIGHT RAIN
COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, AND
ASSOCIATED NELY FLOW, WILL FAVOR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED AROUND
3000-4000 FT AGL AND A CONTINUED NELY SURFACE BREEZE THAT WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WITH ASSOCIATED NELY FLOW AND PERIODS OF
STRATOCUMULUS BASED JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE, THROUGH MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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