999
FXUS62 KRAH 020454
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US, THEN
OFFSHORE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN A COUPLE
OF DECAMETERS IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND CNTL APPALACHIANS. RISING HEIGHTS AND CONTRIBUTION TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, 1033-1034 MB CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN QC
WILL BUILD AND RIDGE SWD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.
MARKEDLY DRIER AIR, CHARACTERIZED BY 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT
WILL ADVECT SWD FROM NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON, AND PWS AROUND HALF AN
INCH AND 50% OF NORMAL, WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CNTL NC BY THU
MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS NOW OVER CNTL NC WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, SOME WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
ADVECT FROM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO CNTL AND ESPECIALLY
ERN NC OVERNIGHT, AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED AND
CONCENTRATED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENT REGIME. INITIALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY NELY
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET, AND PROBABLY
FULLY DECOUPLE/CALM IN NON-URBAN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, AND SUPPORT
SEASONABLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 46-54 F (ONLY ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW AVERAGE).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE, AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE,
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND ACROSS THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE
CENTER OF UNDERLYING, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SWD AND
ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WHILE CONTINUING TO
RIDGE SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST.
STRATOCUMULUS, MOSTLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN IN THE MORNING, SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC WITH DIURNAL HEATING, TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN
OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL, ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW AVERAGE, AND MOSTLY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S THU AFTERNOON AND MID 40S TO LWR 50S FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
* SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, OR IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. EACH
FOLLOWING NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY, MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MEAN THAT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FROPA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE DRY
AIR ADVECTION, SCATTERING OUT THE 4-5KFT CEILINGS AT KFAY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER SUNRISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF NELY WIND GUSTS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS, STRONGEST AT KFAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT, WHICH WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...CBL
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