016
FXUS62 KRAH 020610
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US, THEN
OFFSHORE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
*CLASSIC FALL DAY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS SETUP WILL DELIVER A A CLASSIC FALL DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY(BL
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S) AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH A HEALTHY SCATTERING OF
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS, HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
NORTH, AND THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NELY WINDS (15 TO 25 MPH) IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BRING A CRISP FALL NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH, TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY MARK THE FIRST HEATING DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
* ANOTHER PICTURE-PERFECT FALL DAY
UNDERNEATH A 588 DM RIDGE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, REINFORCING A DRY, STABLE AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NC. SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE CP AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY MODEST UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WHICH COULD
LOCALLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN SO, ANOTHER CRISP AND COOL
AUTUMN NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND
SOME MID/UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
* SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, OR IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. EACH
FOLLOWING NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY, MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MEAN THAT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FROPA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE DRY
AIR ADVECTION, SCATTERING OUT THE 4-5KFT CEILINGS AT KFAY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER SUNRISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF NELY WIND GUSTS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS, STRONGEST AT KFAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT, WHICH WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...CBL
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