628
FXUS62 KRAH 021747
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
147 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US, THEN
OFFSHORE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
*CLASSIC FALL DAY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS SETUP WILL DELIVER A A CLASSIC FALL DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY(BL
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S) AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH A HEALTHY SCATTERING OF
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS, HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
NORTH, AND THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NELY WINDS (15 TO 25 MPH) IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BRING A CRISP FALL NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH, TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY MARK THE FIRST HEATING DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
* ANOTHER PICTURE-PERFECT FALL DAY
UNDERNEATH A 588 DM RIDGE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, REINFORCING A DRY, STABLE AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NC. SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE CP AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY MODEST UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WHICH COULD
LOCALLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN SO, ANOTHER CRISP AND COOL
AUTUMN NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND
SOME MID/UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
* SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, OR IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. EACH
FOLLOWING NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY, MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MEAN THAT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FROPA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
NELY FLOW, AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH
A COUPLE OF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED BETWEEN 2500-5000 FT AGL - LOWEST IN THE
MORNING AND HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND ITS HIGHER-
RESOLUTION NEST VERSION INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR GSB TO FAY FRI MORNING, WHICH
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SIMILAR, SHORT-LIVED MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRENCE
AT INT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL THE NAM
AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER THE
NRN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA FRI MORNING, INCLUDING NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GSO.
OUTLOOK: WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WILL FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS, ASSOCIATED NELY TO ELY FLOW
AROUND IT WILL FAVOR BOTH PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND AND
JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE AND ALSO A RISK OF PATCHY FOG, AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY TO ESPECIALLY MID-NEXT
WEEK, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...MWS
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