729
FXUS62 KRAH 031021
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US, THEN
OFFSHORE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
UNDERNEATH A 588 DM RIDGE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY MODEST INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES, SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A FEW
DEGREE WARMERS THAN YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRATOCUMULUS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH COULD LOCALLY
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING. NEVERTHELESS, ANOTHER CRISP AND COOL
AUTUMN NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS EVENING WILL WANT TO GRAB A
SWEATER OR LIGHT JACKET. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND SOME
MID/UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
LATEST HREF AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGHER SIGNAL FOR POCKETS
OF FOG AND STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA REGION. ALOFT, RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST.
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH PASSING THIN CIRRUS WILL YIELD PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
FEW SPOTS NEAR 80S, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL, WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE
FAVORING AREAS OF FOG AND AND STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 AM FRIDAY...
* SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE
DECREASING ON THURSDAY.
* DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL
NC DURING THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY.
A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER EITHER DAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA. SOME INSTABILITY AROUND ABOUT 1000 J/KG
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MEANING
THAT A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-SUNRISE
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT KFAY.
OUTLOOK: WHILE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WILL FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS, ASSOCIATED NELY TO ELY FLOW
AROUND IT WILL FAVOR BOTH PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND AND
JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE AND ALSO A RISK OF PATCHY FOG, AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY TO ESPECIALLY MID-NEXT
WEEK, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...CBL/MWS
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