534
FXUS62 KRAH 031743
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TO NEAR AND NORTH OF BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
UNDERNEATH A 588 DM RIDGE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY MODEST INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES, SUPPORTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A FEW
DEGREE WARMERS THAN YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRATOCUMULUS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH COULD LOCALLY
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING. NEVERTHELESS, ANOTHER CRISP AND COOL
AUTUMN NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS EVENING WILL WANT TO GRAB A
SWEATER OR LIGHT JACKET. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND SOME
MID/UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
LATEST HREF AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGHER SIGNAL FOR POCKETS
OF FOG AND STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA REGION. ALOFT, RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST.
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH PASSING THIN CIRRUS WILL YIELD PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
FEW SPOTS NEAR 80S, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL, WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE
FAVORING AREAS OF FOG AND AND STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE WITH A
RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER. WITH
EACH DAY, THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THANKS TO SUBTLE WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING JET STREAK AND
S/W TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SETUP WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION,
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BOTH WITH PREFRONTAL WAA AND FRONTAL
LIFT ITSELF TO WARRANT 20-30 POPS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME TIMING FOR FROPA, WILL
KEEP THE MENTIONED OF POSSIBLE TSTMS IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LATE AFTERNOON
FROPA TIMING, SUGGEST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD, THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHETHER
WEDNESDAY'S FRONT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE CAROLINAS OR WHETHER IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW THE NBM SOLUTION LEANS TOWARD
DRY, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS COULD CHANGE IF A SOLUTION FEATURING
A SLOWER-MOVING FRONT ENDS UP VERIFYING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
ENELY FLOW, AROUND A HIGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND BENEATH A COUPLE OF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, WILL FAVOR
PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED BETWEEN 2500-5000 FT AGL -
LOWEST IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CEILINGS MAY RESULT SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MUCH
LIKE THOSE THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT EARLIER TODAY AND
THU. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG
AROUND FAY AND RWI EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT WITH 15-30% PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK: WHILE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS, ASSOCIATED NELY TO ELY FLOW AROUND
IT WILL FAVOR BOTH PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND AND JUST
ABOVE MVFR RANGE AND ALSO A RISK OF PATCHY FOG, AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY TO ESPECIALLY MID-NEXT
WEEK, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
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