954
FXUS62 KRAH 031900
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TO NEAR AND NORTH OF BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
A MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE, INCLUDING A 589 DAM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE CNTL APPALACHIANS IN 12Z-OBSERVED UPR AIR DATA, WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CNTL GULF COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE RELATED TO A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WSWWD INTO NC/VA.
WHILE SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR, AREAS OF
STRATOCUMULUS MAY CONTINUE TO BUBBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, ERN
SANDHILLS, AND ERN PIEDMONT, WHILE CIRRUS NOW EVIDENT IN GOES-E WV
DATA OVER AL AND GA WILL STREAM NEWD AND ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE SRN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEITHER ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE MID-UPR
40S TO LWR-MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
A MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ONLY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TO NEAR AND NORTH OF BERMUDA.
CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS RELATED TO THE RIDGE WILL
FAVOR GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES, INTO THE MID/UPR 70S TO LWR
80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS, AND ALSO STEADILY INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ERN PIEDMONT SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE WITH A
9J 8 RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER.
WITH EACH DAY, THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THANKS TO SUBTLE WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING JET STREAK AND
S/W TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SETUP WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION,
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BOTH WITH PREFRONTAL WAA AND FRONTAL
LIFT ITSELF TO WARRANT 20-30 POPS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH DAYTIME TIMING FOR FROPA, WILL
KEEP THE MENTIONED OF POSSIBLE TSTMS IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LATE AFTERNOON
FROPA TIMING, SUGGEST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD, THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHETHER
WEDNESDAY'S FRONT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE CAROLINAS OR WHETHER IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW THE NBM SOLUTION LEANS TOWARD
DRY, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS COULD CHANGE IF A SOLUTION FEATURING
A SLOWER-MOVING FRONT ENDS UP VERIFYING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
ENELY FLOW, AROUND A HIGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND BENEATH A COUPLE OF LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, WILL FAVOR
PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BASED BETWEEN 2500-5000 FT AGL -
LOWEST IN THE MORNING AND HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CEILINGS MAY RESULT SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MUCH
80S LIKE THOSE THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT EARLIER TODAY AND
THU. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG
AROUND FAY AND RWI EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT WITH 15-30% PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK: WHILE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
FAVOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS, ASSOCIATED NELY TO ELY FLOW AROUND
IT WILL FAVOR BOTH PERIODS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND AND JUST
ABOVE MVFR RANGE AND ALSO A RISK OF PATCHY FOG, AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY TO ESPECIALLY MID-NEXT
WEEK, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
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