465
FXUS62 KRAH 041100
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH,
JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A FEW DEGREES - IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AGAIN, WITH
PRIMARILY 50S AND SOME ISOLATED LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
* SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE
DECREASING ON THURSDAY FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* MOSTLY DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED, WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WHILE IT PREVIOUSLY LOOKED LIKE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND HOW LONG RAIN MAY
LAST INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR RAIN TO LAST LONGER
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE COLD FROPA, THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
DIPPING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /1Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: AS OF 11Z, FOG HAS NOT MADE IT TO RDU/FAY, AND IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTHWEST AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE, FOG ARRIVED MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AT
RWI, AND VISIBILITIES HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT THE FOG TO SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY ALONG WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS, HAVE GONE
WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING
IFR FOG ONLY INTO RWI.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...GREEN
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