917
FXUS62 KRAH 041716
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
116 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH,
JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A FEW DEGREES - IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AGAIN, WITH
PRIMARILY 50S AND SOME ISOLATED LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 116 PM SATURDAY...
AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT THE PERSISTENT ESELY FLOW WILL
CHANNEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEAVING CENTRAL NC LARGELY DRY (ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN OR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON). BY WEDNESDAY, FLOW WILL TURN MORE WSWLY
ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF A SFC
COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDE-SPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL MAXIMIZE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. HOWEVER, SOME INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP AND PERHAPS PRODUCE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. OVERALL THOUGH, RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CENTRAL NC
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN US.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
THURSDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /1Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: AS OF 11Z, FOG HAS NOT MADE IT TO RDU/FAY, AND IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT FOG WILL ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTHWEST AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE, FOG ARRIVED MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AT
RWI, AND VISIBILITIES HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT THE FOG TO SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY ALONG WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS, HAVE GONE
WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING
IFR FOG ONLY INTO RWI.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...GREEN
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