175
FXUS62 KRAH 041723
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 123 PM SATURDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SANDHILLS,
MUCH OF THE REGION IS SEEING CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
STEADILY RISEN INTO THE MID 70S, ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT, CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING WE
MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE TRIANGLE, AND I'LL INCLUDE
AT LEAST A MENTION OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE
COOL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 123 PM SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST, THIS WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO FOLLOW SUIT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING SUFFICIENT
TO WARRANT PRECIP CHANCES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 116 PM SATURDAY...
AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT THE PERSISTENT ESELY FLOW WILL
CHANNEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEAVING CENTRAL NC LARGELY DRY (ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN OR SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON). BY WEDNESDAY, FLOW WILL TURN MORE WSWLY
ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF A SFC
COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDE-SPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL MAXIMIZE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. HOWEVER, SOME INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP AND PERHAPS PRODUCE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. OVERALL THOUGH, RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CENTRAL NC
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN US.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
THURSDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 123 PM SATURDAY...
VERY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR LOWER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT RWI
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS RDU, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXTEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY YIELDING PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...LEINS
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