176
FXUS62 KRAH 051705
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
SHOWING A MINIMAL INCREASE, THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE 2-3 DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER,
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
LESS MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB, RESULTING IN LESS DIURNAL CUMULUS AND
THEREFORE MORE SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO INCREASE ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
* BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-WEEK (WED/WED NIGHT), OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
* A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MID-WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION WED WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS SOME WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS TUE EVENING, AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MUTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SOME WEAK CAPE
ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR IN THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP ON WED. GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
0.50-0.75” OF QPF.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY DROP FROM THE PREFRONTAL 70 AND 80S TUE/WED TO
60S BY THU AS A STRONG 1030MB+ HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY MODERATING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE SLOW AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND EVEN A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF RUNS SET THE TROUGH AXIS UP
WEST OF OUR AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP, BUT THE
GEFS AND EPS TEND TO LEAN EAST OF CENTRAL NC FOR THE TORUGH AXIS.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT
THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR RWI DID NOT TURN OUT WELL - AFTER VISIBILITIES DROPPED
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE 24 HOURS AGO, VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO 1
3/4 MILES BRIEFLY SO FAR TODAY. THE LIFR FOG SEEMS TO HAVE REMAINED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AT IXA/ETC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS. WHILE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, THEY VARY WIDELY IN AREAL COVERAGE,
AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IF/WHERE FOG WILL FORM. THE WIND THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 KT.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page