803
FXUS62 KRAH 051749
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS
SHOWING A MINIMAL INCREASE, THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE 2-3 DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER,
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
LESS MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB, RESULTING IN LESS DIURNAL CUMULUS AND
THEREFORE MORE SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO INCREASE ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
* BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-WEEK (WED/WED NIGHT), OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
* A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MID-WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION WED WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS SOME WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS TUE EVENING, AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MUTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SOME WEAK CAPE
ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR IN THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP ON WED. GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
0.50-0.75” OF QPF.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY DROP FROM THE PREFRONTAL 70 AND 80S TUE/WED TO
60S BY THU AS A STRONG 1030MB+ HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY MODERATING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE SLOW AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND EVEN A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF RUNS SET THE TROUGH AXIS UP
WEST OF OUR AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP, BUT THE
GEFS AND EPS TEND TO LEAN EAST OF CENTRAL NC FOR THE TROUGH AXIS.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT
THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
RADIATION FOG AT RWI OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING, AND PERHAPS MORE BRIEFLY
AT RDU AND FAY, WILL INTERRUPT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS COURTESY OF
PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: RADIATION FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF
RWI AGAIN TUE MORNING, POSSIBLY AGAIN WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT
CNTL NC ON WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...MWS
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