007
FXUS62 KRAH 052336
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPR-LEVEL/TROPOPAUSE
PERTURBATION, EVIDENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN GOES-E WV AND 12Z-
OBSERVED 200-300 MB UPR AIR DATA, WILL PROGRESS EWD AND REACH THE
COAST OF THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY 06-09Z. AN
ASSOCIATED AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD AND
OUT OF CNTL NC THROUGH THE SAME TIME. MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGING,
INCLUDING A 590 DAM HIGH AT 500 MB, WILL OTHERWISE RULE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, ~1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST, ONE THAT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL
REMAIN AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND WSWWD INTO VA/NC.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
EARLIER, DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATES AFTER LOSS OF HEATING,
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR, AND MAINLY CALM
INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE,
WILL FAVOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. LIKE WITH
THE PAST SEVERAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE: IN THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 AT MEB,
FAY, AND CTZ, VERSUS THE CATEGORY HIGHER ONES INDICATED BY THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE INDICATE PATCHY
RADIATION FOG WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED OVER THE NRN/CNTL COASTAL PLAIN
AND NE PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WSWWD INTO NC,
BENEATH CONTINUED MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGING. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS MON
WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER ON AVERAGE THAN
THOSE OF SUN. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO
FAVOR MAINLY CALM AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, PROVIDED STRATOCUMULUS
THAT THE MODELS INDICATE MAY SPREAD INLAND AND ACROSS CNTL NC MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING HAS LIMITED COVERAGE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
* BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-WEEK (WED/WED NIGHT), OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
* A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MID-WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY TUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION WED WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS SOME WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS TUE EVENING, AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MUTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SOME WEAK CAPE
ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR IN THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDER AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP ON WED. GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND
0.50-0.75” OF QPF.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY DROP FROM THE PREFRONTAL 70 AND 80S TUE/WED TO
60S BY THU AS A STRONG 1030MB+ HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY MODERATING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE SLOW AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND EVEN A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF RUNS SET THE TROUGH AXIS UP
WEST OF OUR AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP, BUT THE
GEFS AND EPS TEND TO LEAN EAST OF CENTRAL NC FOR THE TROUGH AXIS.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT
THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 736 PM SUNDAY...
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KRWI OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING, AND PERHAPS MORE
BRIEFLY AT RDU AND FAY, WILL INTERRUPT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR. A PERIOD OF GROUND FOG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF RWI AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
AGAIN WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT CNTL NC ON WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
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