320
FXUS62 KRAH 061721
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND AND NOSING SW
THROUGH NC IS TOPPED BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER E NC. A SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ACCORDING TO RAP-BASED MACHINE ANALYSIS, CONFIRMED BY VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LONG-FETCH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO OUR
SOUTH AND A CORRESPONDING STREAM OF HIGHER PW SWEEPING ONSHORE OVER
SC AND INTO SW NC IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CLOUDS IN OUR S, WHERE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY BKN-OVC, WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NC,
MOSTLY SCATTERED FLAT DAYTIME CU IS OBSERVED. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
TOWARD EVENING, INCLUDING IN OUR S AS THE BETTER PW IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT FURTHER W OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
OFF NEW ENGLAND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHILE STILL NOSING INTO OUR
AREA, THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST, AND THIS LOW LEVEL E-
ESE FLOW UP AND OVER A WEAK STABLE POOL OVER THE PIEDMONT SHOULD
RESULT IN SHALLOW MOIST UPGLIDE AROUND 295K-300K FOCUSED FROM OUR N
SECTIONS INTO THE SANDHILLS, AND THIS SHOULD CULMINATE IN AREAS OF
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 1. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS (AND THEIR TRENDS)
AND THE REFS WHICH SHOWS A MORE THAN 60% PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN A
HALF MILE VSBY EARLY TUE MORNING OVER THE N AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN, SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG MAINLY IN THE E LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER WARM HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, EXPECT
TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...
AS OF TUESDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE DRY LOCALLY, WITH A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD TUESDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PERHAPS
INCHING UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT IN A MORE NOTABLE WARMUP OVERNIGHT, WITH ALL LOCATIONS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...
* BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WED/WED NIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IN THE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
* A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALOFT, A TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. A
TRAILING S/W WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST
US THU/THU NIGHT, WHILE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NWD OVER THE
PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER S/W SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OR OH VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT, POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE S/W OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, FORMING A LARGER LOW/TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE EAST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. AT THE SURFACE,
THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EWD AND OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT. AS THE ~1032 MB HIGH
PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SRN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST
US, IT WILL RIDGE SWD INTO THE AREA THU/FRI. HOW LONG AND WHERE THE
RIDGE LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF A
COASTAL LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
FRI NIGHT/SAT, THEN DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH SUN. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE COOL, NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 200-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, WITH ABOUT 30 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED AFT/EVE AND PWATS TOPPING OUT AROUND 1.8
INCHES. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY, BUT ARE STILL ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
PLACES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND,
HIGHEST EAST, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.
TEMPERATURES: NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WED/WED
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 70S NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S SOUTH
AND LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
DECREASING APPROX 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM WED TO THU, AND REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI. SOME MODERATION BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: WHILE LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENT AT RWI FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE MOVED WEST TO HNZ AND LHZ
BUT REMAINED TO THE EAST OF RDU. IT SHOULD TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
THE LIFR CONDITIONS TO SCATTER OUT AT RWI. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE EAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, BUT SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST ONCE AGAIN, WHILE OTHERS ARE SHOWING FOG MOVING NORTH
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, WILL
NOT PUT ANY RESTRICTIONS INTO THE END OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIPITATION AT
ALL SITES WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...GREEN
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